tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23010913912200745342024-03-28T07:42:27.879-06:00Mountain WeatherJim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.comBlogger112125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-23500033284153448072016-08-22T06:33:00.004-06:002016-08-22T06:33:53.795-06:00Solar Eclipse Weather Pre-Check<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivy1Mx4o10tDHSj1hmKBKU-5CZaBsCYJyaXpubaD8dqEId-_QtSuieTIdjH-Ws2Yrq98kx-aLAaNLqEYuAHZB3Z86fqKzSKE3dXIVR2WZh3bzUaKBoRwvdPK4Ifj9WO6aqwcT0vWezRG7F/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivy1Mx4o10tDHSj1hmKBKU-5CZaBsCYJyaXpubaD8dqEId-_QtSuieTIdjH-Ws2Yrq98kx-aLAaNLqEYuAHZB3Z86fqKzSKE3dXIVR2WZh3bzUaKBoRwvdPK4Ifj9WO6aqwcT0vWezRG7F/s200/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" width="122" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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We are one-year away from the Solar Eclipse that will be visible across the United States on <b>August 21st, 2017</b>. I was watching the weather this past week to see where the best locations -- the most cloud-free spots-- would be, IF the eclipse had occurred this August. </div>
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A few days ago, there were clouds in the path over parts of Idaho & Wyoming, most other locations to the east and west (in the western half of the United States) were relatively clear. The day before, some high thin clouds and contrails were present around noontime in western Wyoming.</div>
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However, on Sunday the 21st of August<b> 2016</b>, skies were generally
cloud-free along that entire path of the eclipse, from Oregon to western Nebraska.
Although, there was plenty of smoke and haze to be found in parts of Idaho,
Wyoming & Oregon from large forest fires that have been on-going
this past month. </div>
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If you zoom-in, you can actually see some of the smoke plumes on the visible
satellite photo taken in the afternoon on Sunday, August 21, 2016.</div>
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For next August, it would be ideal to see a repeat of the sky conditions along the path, but without the fires to dim the show.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0AQ8fVvyW89wKaeZrRPYDIJzuvelkS9XuLhQMxAiX9Hg2wmwn9e8J9321S86OnR1r7BMB4HMOVQefQk1oNE3p2S63-KRfEU323HZRZsxWkKRl-He2_e8J-xfsQjD-8GDXFOQA_sj8vi0F/s1600/21AUG2016-Noon-VIsSat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0AQ8fVvyW89wKaeZrRPYDIJzuvelkS9XuLhQMxAiX9Hg2wmwn9e8J9321S86OnR1r7BMB4HMOVQefQk1oNE3p2S63-KRfEU323HZRZsxWkKRl-He2_e8J-xfsQjD-8GDXFOQA_sj8vi0F/s400/21AUG2016-Noon-VIsSat.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Visible Satellite Photo 21 August 2016</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqaYCY4x5VQ96IWjxrI3u3ZsRlbUnKA4tOsQTy2cKSHku-VU3UeuF0cL6kYWgHI7hmWuQWnnZ1zRWMyvTJmG379ch5Ezm18TWQ-UwPmTVNl7_k8502kPBR1AYTrBD_6_3pJqPjWRr2DPTH/s1600/Fire-Map-21AUG16.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqaYCY4x5VQ96IWjxrI3u3ZsRlbUnKA4tOsQTy2cKSHku-VU3UeuF0cL6kYWgHI7hmWuQWnnZ1zRWMyvTJmG379ch5Ezm18TWQ-UwPmTVNl7_k8502kPBR1AYTrBD_6_3pJqPjWRr2DPTH/s400/Fire-Map-21AUG16.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Locations of Large Forest Fires in Western U.S. August 2016</td></tr>
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Posted August 22, 2016 by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</div>
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Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-83269386815345615572016-08-05T08:57:00.001-06:002016-08-05T08:57:37.455-06:00Playing it Safe During Thunderstorms
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">(Note: the content of this post first appeared in the <i>MountainWeather </i>column in the Jackson Hole News & Guide on July 20, 2016).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Every
summer I feel obliged to reiterate a few important points about lightning
safety. Maybe this will be your first time hearing this message, or maybe an
annual reminder isn’t such a bad thing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In a previous post, I outlined what to watch for, as far as cumulus clouds
developing into a potential thunderstorm. Vigilantly observing the sky
throughout the day is the first step towards knowing when it is time to retreat
from the mountains, get off the lake, or the local ball fields. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In this post,
I will cover what to do when thunderstorms are imminent, and Mother Nature says
it’s “game-on” for dangerous lightning.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Lightning
Facts</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Most people
are not killed by a direct hit from a lightning bolt. Although, that certainly would
do the job and be “game over”, right there. More commonly, people are injured
or killed when lightning strikes nearby, causing an instantaneous surge of
electrical current, and intense heat, known as a “side-flash”.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhrR9SFFXCpoakjy9UVz_HO6n9gDHUaSJNV2gfV4TdQO67xu1YupWOi-aW0uocT738ekVZIoJB3vjSzCBffDHM19x54HsUu2Abt3qdUxOcsOqYAQh-KanhLO1n5RbdCuFMhI_7e3zu2Ia6/s1600/Slide57.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhrR9SFFXCpoakjy9UVz_HO6n9gDHUaSJNV2gfV4TdQO67xu1YupWOi-aW0uocT738ekVZIoJB3vjSzCBffDHM19x54HsUu2Abt3qdUxOcsOqYAQh-KanhLO1n5RbdCuFMhI_7e3zu2Ia6/s320/Slide57.jpg" title="" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The most
common cause of lightning casualties, however, comes from getting shocked by
the high voltage current that runs through the ground. Ground current accounts
for about 50-percent of all lightning casualties.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Look at it
this way; a lightning bolt is like a hand-grenade going off. Standard
Army-issue hand grenades have a kill-radius of about 25-feet, and a
casualty-radius of about 50-feet. Therefore, getting to a safe, or safer
location, where lightning is less likely to hit is your next line of defense.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Seek
Shelter Early</span></b>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">As soon as
you can hear the thunder, lightning is close enough to strike, and it is time
to seek shelter. Lightning bolts can be seen from about 15 miles away, and
thunder can be heard up to about 10 miles away, on a good day. In a canyon, out
in the wind, or at a noisy concert, thunder may not be heard until it is much
closer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">You can
estimate how far away the lightning is by counting the time between when you
see the flash of lightning and when you hear the thunder. Count in seconds
(one-thousand-one, one-thousand two, etc.). Five seconds equals one mile. If
you count to 25, that means the lightning is 5 miles away, which is actually close
enough to be able to reach out and touch you.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZmjwgsQbiEU7XVd3vqaOJaiAAhSgEccoEElA4ZxY8yI8C3g0z4iA0bO_yRe7ofg76PdLXczFACvhGSHrV_N7ABnQ6JEH_9wuapIJdZt0hluIGec1P_-KgmH-qOolLuYn6R-5vfOFQ_pdN/s1600/Lightning-storm20140612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZmjwgsQbiEU7XVd3vqaOJaiAAhSgEccoEElA4ZxY8yI8C3g0z4iA0bO_yRe7ofg76PdLXczFACvhGSHrV_N7ABnQ6JEH_9wuapIJdZt0hluIGec1P_-KgmH-qOolLuYn6R-5vfOFQ_pdN/s320/Lightning-storm20140612.gif" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Don’t wait
for it to start raining before you think about seeking shelter, or for the
first bolt to hit nearby, as most people tend to do.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Inside a
building or a car are the absolute safest places to be. Picnic shelters, a
gazebo, a dugout at the ball field, are NOT good shelters from lightning. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">If you are
out on a hike, don’t run underneath the biggest, loneliest looking tree for
shelter, as most people also tend to do, especially once it starts raining. A
better option is to get into a group of trees of similar height. Also, make
sure you are not standing on top of any tree roots. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">If all else
fails, get into a low spot in the terrain, that is not a watercourse, and crouch
down. Like Army guys do when they dive into a bunker to avoid the grenade’s
blast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">If you are
in the mountains, do whatever you can, as fast as you can, to get off the
higher ridgetops. Waiting it out in a gully or low spot between ridges is
better than nothing, but avoid a gully that might become a running watercourse
when the downpour starts. And separate yourself from all metal objects, ice
axes, climbing hardware, etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Also, DO
NOT get under an overhanging rock or in a cave. Electricity will often jump the
gap that you are sitting or standing in when lightning strikes nearby.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">If you are
on a lake or river, get out of the water and off the boat. Water is a great
conductor of electricity! Get to shore and find a stand of similar sized trees
to wait it out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
absolute best thing you can do to prevent injuries from lightning striking nearby
is: KEEP YOUR FEET TOGETHER. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Standing
with both feet together will help prevent dangerous ground currents from
running up through one leg and exiting down the other. You may feel a bump
under your feet as the ground current passes, if both feet are together, but it
is unlikely that you would receive a serious electrical injury. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Secondarily, don’t huddle together in a group. Spread out, at
least 25-feet feet apart, if not 50-feet apart, so everyone is not within the
same kill/casualty radius. Cows and sheep tend to huddle together during
thunderstorms, and often entire herds or flocks are killed because they are all
linked together as one big conductor of electricity.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">It is best to remain in a safe location for 20 to 30 minutes
after the last of the lightning leaves the area; to make sure that the
thunderstorm is a safe distance away. It is really hard to convince people to
wait a little longer. We usually run right back out to play as soon as the rain
stops.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Pay attention to the weather forecast each day, to see what
the probability of thunderstorms might be. Be observant of the clouds as they
develop during the day. And don’t wait until the lightning is flashing or the
rain is pouring to turn around and head for a safer location.</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Jim
is the chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">mountainweather.com
</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole
and the Teton Mountains for almost 25 years.</span></i>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-40348220594927414522016-08-05T08:39:00.002-06:002016-08-05T08:40:22.928-06:00Watching the Sky for Thunderstorms<style>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">(Note: The content in this post first appeared in the MountainWeather column in the Jackson Hole News & Guide on July 6th, 2016).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">July begins the heart of the “Thunderstorm Season” in the Rockies. It is also the peak of the tourist season, climbing, backpacking, & baseball seasons, etc. etc. . That means more
people will be outdoors enjoying the weather, and potentially getting caught in
thunderstorms.</span>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">In this post I will describe how thunderstorms work,
and what to watch for when you are outside during the day. Those telltale
signs that dangerous thunderstorms may be developing.</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> I </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">will
follow this post with a subsequent one on lightning safety. </span>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Moist and
Unstable Air</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Most of us would
probably describe a “typical summer day” as: Clear blue skies in the morning, followed
by some puffy cumulus clouds in the afternoon, and maybe a chance of some
afternoon thunderstorms. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">How big or
ominous those cumulus clouds become will depend on two things: <br />
1) How much moisture is in the air. 2) How unstable the air is. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">That clear
blue sky that you see in the morning actually contains some moisture, in the
form of invisible water vapor. As the day goes on, and the ground heats up, the
air begins to rise. As the warmer air rises higher into the atmosphere it
encounters colder temperatures, and the invisible water vapor condenses into visible
water droplets. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">If the air
keeps rising, cooling, and condensing, then water droplets start to gather
together, and clouds appear.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Relative
humidity (RH) is one way to measure how moist the atmosphere is. For
thunderstorm development, it can still be very dry in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, with low RH. But at the same time, high RH may exist in the upper
levels of the atmosphere, which is enough to perk up thunderstorms once there
is enough instability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">How
unstable the atmosphere is will depend on the difference in temperature between
the ground and the upper levels, like up around 20 to 25,000-feet. The bigger
the difference in temperature, the more unstable the air is, that is, it must
be warmer down low and colder up high to be unstable. Think, “hot air rises”,
that’s instability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">If the air
isn’t rising, or if temperatures aren’t very cold aloft, or the atmosphere is
staying bone dry up through 25,000-feet, then all we see is clear blue skies,
all day.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Be Observant</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">There are a
few things to keep an eye on to determine if those little white puffy clouds
are going to develop into full-blown thunderstorms on any given day. Watch the
sky for these signs of impending thunderstorms:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />
1) The first puffs of cumulus appear before noontime.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">2) The individual
cumulus clouds start gathering together and growing vertically.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">3) The base
of the cloud gets darker, indicating the clouds are growing taller.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">4) Taller
clouds, darker bases and more of the sky covered by those clouds, the greater
the potential for heavy rainfall, hail, and/or strong gusty downdraft winds.
And of course, lightning. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">However, don’t
be lulled into thinking that clouds and thunderstorms can only develop during
the afternoon hours. There are many days that don’t fit this “typical” summertime
thunderstorm scenario.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt6I_Hjqi_t1p3p_NgvCt1z4dL5_tAmHytOwNtgzBXcN6F777rcA4pVx3hqFuqPIQnZz_9cgshhVXOyOsud0xdw-IEzUVzOBov4epI9_V6rlLzNsNkfnWFRi-01r2cqKf4zEph7D1Q5vB7/s1600/Isolated-Thunderstorm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt6I_Hjqi_t1p3p_NgvCt1z4dL5_tAmHytOwNtgzBXcN6F777rcA4pVx3hqFuqPIQnZz_9cgshhVXOyOsud0xdw-IEzUVzOBov4epI9_V6rlLzNsNkfnWFRi-01r2cqKf4zEph7D1Q5vB7/s320/Isolated-Thunderstorm.gif" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Thundertorm
Enhancers</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Storm
systems, otherwise known as low-pressure systems, will periodically roll across
the Rockies in the summer, and these will add additional moisture &
instability to the atmosphere. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Often associated
with a low-pressure system, is a “cold front”. Cold fronts produce more lift
and give a boost to the instability. Some of the more potent and violent
thunderstorms we see are directly related to the passage of a cold front.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The last
thing to be aware of is, the “summer monsoon”. In brief, the Desert Southwest
Monsoon is a seasonal wind flow pattern that brings very moist and unstable air
up from central Mexico, across the Four-Corners Region, and sometimes that
monsoon moisture gets circulated as far north as Northwest Wyoming. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Thunderstorms
associated with the monsoon are some of the most random that we will see in the
summer, and can occur any time of the day or night. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Whenever
you experience a thunderstorm in the middle of the night or just after sunrise
– when the afternoon heating is not really a factor– it is very likely that a
storm system, a cold front, or the monsoon is triggering the thunderstorm activity.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Keeping an
eye on thunderstorm development is of paramount importance to anyone who is
spending the day outside. If the clouds develop into lightning-producing
thunderstorms, then you are at risk of being injured or killed by a lightning
strike; whether you are climbing the Grand, playing a around of golf, fishing the
river, or out on the lake or ball field.</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">mountainweather.com </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for almost 25 years.</span></i></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-17741550661802280902016-08-05T08:25:00.001-06:002016-08-05T08:28:50.244-06:00Understanding Your Weather Prognosis <style>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLSFgN0W1pMxt1zM9kCLTR4sq9vMEf1BTlcHk2TmdjeEVsJnpBAzpcQ92e6Metk-TU-suzspstrXUGMOlt_KHVIEF4agOiD8FO7B5tp-MmWqSzJh5vemHIstQZ336aHmLfettr-lqzHaQN/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLSFgN0W1pMxt1zM9kCLTR4sq9vMEf1BTlcHk2TmdjeEVsJnpBAzpcQ92e6Metk-TU-suzspstrXUGMOlt_KHVIEF4agOiD8FO7B5tp-MmWqSzJh5vemHIstQZ336aHmLfettr-lqzHaQN/s200/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" width="122" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">(Note: Content in this post first appeared in the <i>MountainWeather</i> column in the Jackson Hole News & Guide June 8, 2016)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Sometimes, the forecast can be confusing or misleading,
especially when it comes to understanding the “probability of precipitation. In
this week’s column I will explain what those percentages really mean, by way of
analogy. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Weather Doctor</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Being a meteorologist is a lot like being a doctor, except that
my patient is the atmosphere. That patient shows up in my office everyday with
a different set of symptoms and ailments. My task is to analyze what is wrong
with my patient. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">I begin my assessment by looking at satellite and radar
images, along with a host of weather maps and observations to get some baseline
information. Kind of like the nurse taking your vitals and patient history.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Next, I try and diagnose the problem (or problems) the
atmosphere might be presenting to me. I look for the obvious signs and symptoms
first. Some days they may be so obvious that the diagnosis is relatively
simple. For instance, if it is already pouring rain and thunder-storming
outside, then the forecast will be easy, “rain and thunderstorms today”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">That would be kind of like a real patient walking into the
doctor’s office with an open fracture of the lower leg. The diagnosis is easy,
“your leg is broken”. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Most days though, my patient’s condition requires further diagnosis
and testing, as I’m sure it is with many doctor’s patients. Whenever the
complaints and symptoms are quite subtle or perhaps very complicated, then an
accurate diagnosis becomes more difficult. The same is true with the weather.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Initially, I might say, “I think it might rain today”. The
doctor might say, “I think you might have a tumor”.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">That’s when the doctor sends you for the blood tests, the
x-rays, the MRI’s, the colonoscopies (ugh!), or whatever other tests are
necessary to help make a better diagnosis of your problem and how to treat it. That
is when I head to the computer models, to help guide me towards making a
decision about what the weather is going to do.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Sometimes, the final prognosis, meteorologically or
medically, is more of a guess. An educated guess, based on your training,
experience and how often you have seen these same conditions. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Probability</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The doctor might tell me that after surgery, that I might
have a 50/50 chance of surviving. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like
the doctor’s prognosis, weather forecasts are also an expression of
uncertainty. Probability of precipitation may be the most looked-at part of any
weather forecast, but I imagine it is also the least understood.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Probability in a forecast is usually expressed in percent, 30-percent
chance of showers, a 60-percent chance of thunderstorms, etc. etc. But what
does that really mean?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Probability of precipitation is an expression of two
factors: Confidence and Area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">How confident is the forecaster, or the computer model, that
precipitation could actually occur, and over how much of the forecast area will
it occur, if it does.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><b>Case1:</b> The forecaster is very confident, 100-percent, that measurable
precipitation will occur, but it may not occur everywhere within the forecast
area, such as Teton County, as an example. That might generate a 50% probability
of precipitation (PoP).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><b>Case 2: </b>The forecaster’s confidence that measurable rain
will occur is not that high, say 50-percent confidence, but if it does rain, it
would rain over the entire forecast area. That would also generate a 50-percent
PoP.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The problem is, you don’t know which case was used for the
forecast. Which doesn’t really make this any less confusing or misleading, does
it?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Given that, I would say that the best way to interpret these
examples is to say: “There is a 50-percent chance that precipitation could
occur at any point within the forecast area, during the forecast time period”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">A “50-percent chance of rain” does not mean that it will
rain over half of the time period, or over half the forecast area. Which is a
common misinterpretation of PoP.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The table compares the percentages to the uncertain terms
and the alternate descriptors used in most forecasts, to give you a reference
to work from when making decisions about what that forecast really means.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Remember, the forecast is just guidance, like your doctors
advice. In some cases, it may or may not rain, and you may or may not die.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Note: My apologies to any doctors reading this, I did not
mean to imply that weather forecasting was as easy as brain surgery.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span>
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<td colspan="3" style="background: #CCCCCC; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-pattern: gray-20 auto; mso-shading: windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.25in;" valign="top" width="450"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Probability of Precipitation</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Probability</span></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">“Uncertain” Term </span></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Alternate Description </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">10 to 20 %</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Slight Chance</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Isolated</span></div>
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</tr>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">30 % to 50 %</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.5in;" valign="top" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Chance</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="176"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Scattered</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">60 % to 70 %</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.5in;" valign="top" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Likely or Possible</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="176"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Widespread or Numerous</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 94.5pt;" valign="top" width="95"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11.0pt;">80 % to 100 %</span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 355.5pt;" valign="top" width="356"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">No terms used, forecast just reads: “Rain”, “Snow”,
“Thunderstorms”, etc.</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for nearly 25 years.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-71971483922846763012015-09-14T18:15:00.002-06:002015-09-14T18:15:46.239-06:00The Early Winter Outlook
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s1600/met+Jim+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s200/met+Jim+W.jpg" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It seems
like weather predictions for the coming winter are beginning earlier and
earlier every year. They used to come out in early October, then it was
September, now they are appearing in mid-August. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The early
release of the Old Farmer’s Almanac hit the major media a couple weeks ago. You
can buy it in stores beginning this week. Or, if you have to write a column
about it, like me, you could buy the pre-release digital copy. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It seems odd
to me to be previewing the winter, when I haven’t even had the chance to review
the summer. After all, fall doesn’t officially begin for another three weeks.
But, here we go!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Outlooks
Galore</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The various
Farmer’s Almanacs are just one way to get a leg-up on what the winter might be
like. The Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA and the National
Weather Service is another source. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">El Nino
has dominated the weather limelight this summer, and certainly the current and
predicted state of the El Nino weighs heavily in the long-range outlooks for
this winter. You can get updated on what I wrote recently about El Nino by
searching the archives on the JH News and Guide website, or on my
mountainweather blog page. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The short
story is, it looks like the current El Nino will continue through the winter
and early spring. NOAA expects it to become stronger and peak in November or
December. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Previous strong El Nino events
have brought above average snowfall to the Sierras and the Southwest United
States.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NOAA-CPC</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">I
analyzed all of the long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) for the winter months, broken down into three overlapping three-month
categories, namely: November-December-January, December-January-February, and
January-February-March. I also compared what is known as their “Three-Class”
version and their new experimental, and as yet “unofficial”, “Two-Class”
version of these outlooks. I like the new 2-class version, because it is
simpler and less ambiguous than the 3-class version.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Basically,
the 2-class version establishes what is “normal”, or average, by using historic
weather data from 1981-2010. They pick out the coldest and the driest 15 years,
and the warmest and the wettest 15 years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From there, forecasters then estimate which
regions of the country they believe will be well above or below these averages
and assign probabilities. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">For
instance, a 60-percent probability that it will be warmer than normal, means
there is a 40-percent probability temperatures could be below normal. If they
are unsure, then it is a coin-flip, 50/50 chances of being above or below, or
what they call EC “Equal Chances”. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Suffice
it to say; no matter how you slice it, all versions of the CPC outlooks are bleak
for the Northern Rockies. The overall picture they are painting for our area is
for warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation from
November through March. However, the probabilities of that happening are
generally around 60-percent. Doesn’t that give us a 40-percent chance of it
going the other way, colder and snowier? Think positive!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Farmer’s</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">When I
opened up my digital version of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the familiar yellow-jacketed
almanac you’ll see in Stone Drug or in your favorite grocery store this week, I
found that it doesn’t do us any favors either. Their big color map of the U.S. has
all of Idaho, Utah, western Montana, western Wyoming and western Colorado
categorized as, “Mild and Dry”. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">This
almanac’s forecast has the Cascades of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California under, “Cold and Snowy”. Should I pack my bags for Mt Baker or Mt.
Hood? Not so fast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">In the
2016 edition of the Farmer’s Almanac, the orange and green-jacketed almanac,
they are calling for, “Very Snowy and Typical Winter Cold” for Montana,
Wyoming, and Colorado. Bingo! Let’s run with that forecast, it sounds so much
better than the doom and gloom of all the others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Caveat
Emptor</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Buyer
beware! These are long-range outlooks, which I would liken to reading a fairy
tale. Good or bad, it does not necessarily mean the predictions will come true.
</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Computer
models generate much of what goes into these forecasts. I work with computer
models everyday, and I can tell you that there are plenty of days that the
models can’t get it right, for just 24-hours into the future. Naturally, I am a
little skeptical of any model that predicts weather conditions 3 to 6 months
into the future. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Take a
deep breath, don’t worry, be happy, it will get cold this winter and it will
snow. Some winters are better than others, and I would never write this one off
before the first snowflake has even had a chance to fall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Three-Month Outlooks</span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Three-Month Period</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Temperature</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Precipitation</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">NOV-DEC-JAN</span></div>
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<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">55% above</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">55% below</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">DEC-JAN-FEB</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">60% above</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">65% below</span></div>
</td>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">JAN-FEB-MAR</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">50% above</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">60% below</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
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<td colspan="3" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.15in;" valign="top" width="443">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Probabilities from the new Experimental “Unofficial”
Two-class Climate Outlooks</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for almost 25 years.</span> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com148tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-41532331020373536192015-08-31T12:11:00.001-06:002015-08-31T12:11:15.601-06:00Hyper-El Nino may be Over-hyped<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s1600/met+Jim+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s200/met+Jim+W.jpg" width="121" /></a></i></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><i>(Note: The article in this post was originally published in the </i>Jackson Hole News and Guide<i> on August 19, 2015).</i><br />The
comments and questions are starting to come more often now, about the current
El Nino and how it will affect our winter. I blame the bigger media outlets for
creating this hype, by attaching monikers to their headlines like: “Super El
Nino”, “Strongest El Nino Ever”, and my personal favorite, “The Great Godzilla
of an El Nino”.</span>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">It makes me
want to throw-up when I read these headlines, especially since nothing
extraordinary is actually happening yet. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">To help
squelch some of the hype, by way of plain-old scientific explanation, in this
week’s column I am going to tell you what El Nino is, what the current and
forecasted state of the El Nino is, and what affects this El Nino might have on
weather patterns this winter. In particular, what it might mean for snowfall in
Jackson Hole.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">El Nino
Defined</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">El Nino is
not a monster storm, nor is it a series of monster storms that guarantee copious
amounts of snow. I will guarantee you though, that every single major weather
event that happens between now and next spring will be blamed on El Nino.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">El Nino is
part of a larger phenomenon that has to do with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
in the equatorial Pacific, collectively known as “ENSO”, or the El Nino
Southern Oscillation.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">ENSO comes
in three different flavors: 1) El Nino, when SSTs are warmer than average. 2)
La Nina, when SSTs are cooler than average. 3) Neutral (No-Nino), when SSTs are
near average.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
strength of an ENSO event is measured by how much warmer or cooler those SST’s
are getting, and how far across the Equatorial Pacific they are spreading. This
in turn creates differences in pressure across the Equatorial Pacific. Sometimes,
in the case of an El Nino, a complete reversal of the normal wind flow pattern may
occur.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Ocean temperatures
down near the equator are relatively warm to start with, but during an El Nino
they may get 1 or 2 degrees warmer. This creates more thunderstorm activity
over the ocean, and the effects of that extend up into the upper atmospheric
circulation, as well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And voila, we have
a disruption of the “normal” atmospheric circulation, which translates to a
change in the weather patterns both north and south of the Equator.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">El Nino
2015</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">I don’t
know if you remember back to May of 2014, but NOAA scientists then were
predicting that a “Super El Nino” would develop for the fall and winter of
2014-15. That never materialized. El Nino conditions (warmer SSTs) never showed
up until March of 2015, too late to disrupt winter weather patterns in the
northern Pacific. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">May-June-July
2015 average SSTs warmed up to 1-degree (Celsius) above the average in some
portions of the ocean. Winds were not reversing yet, but they were slowing
down, and more convection was noted; that is, more thunderstorms were showing
up on the satellite photos.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">All of that
has led NOAA forecasters to predict: “This El Nino will peak in the late
fall/Early winter with 3-month average SSTs near or exceeding 2-degrees C above
normal. IF this forecast comes true, it will place the 2015 event among the
strongest El Ninos in the historical record (1950-2015).”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The strongest
El Nino winters on record were 1997-98, which peaked at 2.3 –degrees above
normal, and 1982-83, which peaked at 2.1 degrees above normal, for their three
month average SSTs in November-December-January. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">What’s
Expected?</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">If this
does develop into an El Nino of those proportions, then what should we expect
to happen? Usually during El Nino winters the jet stream, or storm track, tends
to dip further south in the Northern Pacific, moving over California and the
Southwestern United States, then cruising across the Southeastern U.S., keeping
those locations wetter than normal in winter.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In both
1997-98 and 1982-83 the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California had huge winter
snowfalls, both were attributed to the strong El Nino. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies are a bit too far north of the storm track
during strong El Nino’s to reap the same benefits. The opposite though is true
during strong La Nina winters, when the storm track usually does favor the Pacific
Northwest and Jackson Hole, and leaves California and the Southwest dry.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In Jackson,
during the strongest El Nino Winter of 1997-98 we had average snowfall in town
and just above average snowfall in the mountains. In the El Nino Winter of
1982-83, we had below average snowfall, both in town and in the mountains.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">When I take
into account all the El Nino years, weak & strong, it’s a 50/50 proposition
for Jackson Hole. Half the El Ninos ended up with above normal snowfall around here,
half had below normal snowfall.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Given all
that info, I wouldn’t get too hyped-up about this “Giangundous El Nino 2015”
just yet for Jackson Hole, it might make for a bigger snowfall winter here or
it might not. Unless you live in Tahoe, then it’s going to be HUGE, for sure,
dude!</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Range for almost 25 years.</span></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com67tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-87380937281471173042015-07-28T08:53:00.004-06:002015-07-28T08:53:55.807-06:00Snow in July in theTetons<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsTEFtsSNeNkXJWEivfPf2B8mLV0goo5PmyXOkxxLCCM8KwG1vcQKc7T67TP15twhz-yZE0pZ48k3dxScCqfXwuRKFuQvMVfC08OJ3PXo913igNdIjX3V8jqYj7n1BKymKDC7weNa_bCGi/s1600/met+Jim+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsTEFtsSNeNkXJWEivfPf2B8mLV0goo5PmyXOkxxLCCM8KwG1vcQKc7T67TP15twhz-yZE0pZ48k3dxScCqfXwuRKFuQvMVfC08OJ3PXo913igNdIjX3V8jqYj7n1BKymKDC7weNa_bCGi/s200/met+Jim+W.jpg" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
An unusually cold Low pressure system for late July moved across the Northern Rockies on Monday, July 27th, 2015 , bringing with it a dramatic drop in temperatures, and snow to the higher elevations of the Teton Range in western Wyoming, as well as some strong, gusty winds.<br />
<br />
SNOW<br />Snow was observed at the top of Teton Pass Monday evening, at an elevation of just over 8400-ft. Snow was on the ground down to around the 9500-ft. elevation on Tuesday morning in the Tetons. It is not especially unusual in the higher Tetons to have snow in July, however, to see it on the mountains to such a low elevation this time of year it is. Last summer it snowed down to about the same elevations in late August. So, we are a month earlier this year!<br />
<br />
WIND<br />
There were some strong gusty winds with that front, hitting 70 mph at the Lower Saddle (11,610-ft.), 54 mph on top of the JH Tram (10, 318-ft.), and 49 mph over on Lava Mountain near Togwotee Pass (10, 430-ft.).<br />
The Jackson Hole Airport experienced wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph between noontime and 3:00 pm. They maxed out with a 43 mph gust.<br />
<br />
TEMPS<br />
Temperatures dropped over 20 degrees in the valley as the front passed in the afternoon, going from a highs in the mid to upper 60's around noontime to the mid to upper 40's by 3:00 pm.<br />
<br />
The low temp at the JH Airport Tuesday got down to 30-degrees. In town it was mid 30's and not really threatening the record low of 31 degrees for July 28th, set back in 1940. The record low for July 29th is 27 degrees, and I have foretasted a low near 30 for Wednesday morning.<br />
<br />
In the mountains temps went from a high near 70 degrees at 10,000-ft. on Sunday afternoon to highs in the upper 50's at noontime Monday, then the temperature plummeted to near 30 degrees by 3:00 pm Monday afternoon. A 40-degree drop in about 24-hours!<br />
<br />
At one point Monday evening at the Lower Saddle of the Grand Teton, the temperature was 25 degrees and the wind was blowing steady at almost 40 mph, causing the windchill factor to make it feel like 7 degrees. Yes, seven!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQisZ5vEMkwJKH18aX6VGoW4swXs2KtHWAEtvz24KFB7ddQs3HzTi4YeJqooHF7Km8mGEkhYOMlsH7FayJDdwwD_fFOVIocAXuYSYJrxcC5QFbsx0nVU6xxeu0VdLMfHTWAX_JWVtKMmUo/s1600/JULY-ColdFront-2015.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="555" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQisZ5vEMkwJKH18aX6VGoW4swXs2KtHWAEtvz24KFB7ddQs3HzTi4YeJqooHF7Km8mGEkhYOMlsH7FayJDdwwD_fFOVIocAXuYSYJrxcC5QFbsx0nVU6xxeu0VdLMfHTWAX_JWVtKMmUo/s640/JULY-ColdFront-2015.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Summary of Weather Events around Jackson Hole & the Teton Mountains for July 27th, 2015.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Post by Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey<br />
<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com79tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-55550727114830566362015-07-16T12:05:00.000-06:002015-07-16T12:05:03.243-06:00July 15,2015 Thunderstorms<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s1600/met+Jim+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_b7To21lhkNFufl_v2BH_j5aO6YX58wMO3sY8I_-u7Qd4iyFt9gyxHeLDAm0hP7X64L5rVVXI8gz5CpHX2MUfRKF4Ty1TGpiy3EhgBsL0pKGaNFAEOwVO1BTaCsW2WOMy4Uq_M11HLSW1/s200/met+Jim+W.jpg" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr align="left"><td class="tr-caption"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We were underneath a Southwesterly flow this week in western Wyoming out ahead of a Trof of Low-pressure that was over the western US. That kept a decent supply of moist and unstable air overhead that produced late day thunderstorms on Monday, none on Tuesday, and then as that Trof got closer, some rain showers & thunderstorms on Wednesday.<br />
<br />
The crescendo of activity was Wednesday evening in Jackson Hole as the cold air aloft within that Trof crossed into western WY, acting just like a cold front passing through. Combine that with the best heating of the day, and good lifting in a Westerly flow over the Tetons, and away ya go!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Some Weather Highlights from Wednesday:<br />
<ul>
<li>Between 0.19 & 0.26 inches of rainfall in town.</li>
<li>Some pea sized hail.</li>
<li>Wind Gust at the Lower Saddle of 76 mph (at 11,610-ft. elevation).</li>
</ul>
There was also a decent amount of lightning along the Teton Range, and a few good strikes near town, as well. Below are some images of weather maps during the height of the activity on Wednesday.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrYhXo9BQ4iDaPJgRcaTKg_rLvd_zpZ0CU37GMrkzAju_L0auZZH50Spss614kZbe4TAlNK-ZoIMuwAP2datwyveSvYOHHqP066uf61hQrETx3Ii8mOKGn0-zW8drPi3Wy7F6hA_3Kn50y/s1600/15JUL15upaCNTR_700.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrYhXo9BQ4iDaPJgRcaTKg_rLvd_zpZ0CU37GMrkzAju_L0auZZH50Spss614kZbe4TAlNK-ZoIMuwAP2datwyveSvYOHHqP066uf61hQrETx3Ii8mOKGn0-zW8drPi3Wy7F6hA_3Kn50y/s640/15JUL15upaCNTR_700.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7HJsLh8XHT_yb-bI7TYiP8y6zIAAflp_NJsuVVW9VTmvzbWw8JjdUPJnKUwUdoGINTWmMhhujNP6DApKW4-iKgw-XvZrFJ4NOIA9pEZXAStgLJOtn8qVS4i-HYMMVI_p4QGd-u9mRVTzr/s1600/15JULY15-Thunderstorm-A.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7HJsLh8XHT_yb-bI7TYiP8y6zIAAflp_NJsuVVW9VTmvzbWw8JjdUPJnKUwUdoGINTWmMhhujNP6DApKW4-iKgw-XvZrFJ4NOIA9pEZXAStgLJOtn8qVS4i-HYMMVI_p4QGd-u9mRVTzr/s640/15JULY15-Thunderstorm-A.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar with lightning overlay. Jackson is yellow dot. Yellow circle highlights the whole thunderstorm complex.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0E2-PWTyM-H25mz2EjrPEk_AA_JgWH2R1XCGHhcaNQ1rVJi4ErtAn8vMRxA-Ml_ePd5jK78dvdlP1qQzpNSvurTsAKrAl0nWcTnsz-5j3Agt5v9n6aZfhiPbjGvbGlC4raGxIEtLaG5bx/s1600/15JULY15-LightningMap-Meteo+copy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0E2-PWTyM-H25mz2EjrPEk_AA_JgWH2R1XCGHhcaNQ1rVJi4ErtAn8vMRxA-Ml_ePd5jK78dvdlP1qQzpNSvurTsAKrAl0nWcTnsz-5j3Agt5v9n6aZfhiPbjGvbGlC4raGxIEtLaG5bx/s640/15JULY15-LightningMap-Meteo+copy.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite and lightning strikes, yellow arrow upper level wind direction.<br />
Image courtesy of MeteoStar</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZpWHXuYuKVEEXuyJf4JwtX-QylvzXJ5sRW5wBbF1QTBuDC8UkVRnCTB0nrOOqNoPS9Chj3mELucjbazE2wqPZROw-zJE85N_dQNxczd-yErWhmfsk7fcwSzszm_UBIb7CFKekaQWX0VqT/s1600/15JUL15-IR2PIH.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZpWHXuYuKVEEXuyJf4JwtX-QylvzXJ5sRW5wBbF1QTBuDC8UkVRnCTB0nrOOqNoPS9Chj3mELucjbazE2wqPZROw-zJE85N_dQNxczd-yErWhmfsk7fcwSzszm_UBIb7CFKekaQWX0VqT/s640/15JUL15-IR2PIH.GIF" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Infra-red satellite image at 5;30 pm MDT</td></tr>
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<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-9779364041693738662015-06-03T08:33:00.001-06:002015-06-03T08:33:15.054-06:00What can we blame this winter’s weather on?
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Almost everyone probably agrees that we had a weird winter, not just
here in Jackson Hole, but across the entire United States. Characterized by
warmer and drier than normal conditions in the Western United States and
Alaska, contrasted by unusually cold and record breaking snow in the Eastern
United States.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Even though the Winter of 2014-15
is behind us, people are still asking, “Why was our winter so weird? What
caused it to be so warm and dry?” More to the point, what can we blame that on?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In this week’s column I will
attempt to explain the phenomena that affected our winter’s weather and why
weather patterns were so disrupted across the U.S.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Name Blame</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Anytime we experience unusual
weather we like to blame it on something. It makes it easier if we can blame it
on something with a catchy nickname, like “El Nino” or “La Nina”. We couldn’t
do that this year, as the sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific remained
neutral until very late in the winter season. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">If it wasn’t El Nino, then what
was it? Besides El Nino, there are a number of other ocean and atmospheric interactions
that can alter the “normal” weather patterns. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">One possible explanation is the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO, which has to do with sea-surface
temperatures in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The PDO usually runs on a 20 to
30 year cycle of either warmer or colder than normal. Back in the 1990’s and
early 2000’s it was in a warm phase. Then, there was a marked trend of cooling
temps in the north Pacific between 2007 and 2013. By early 2014 the ocean was
warming again, reaching a peak in December and January 2014-15, and temps were
still above normal by a couple degrees through March 2015. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">I thought maybe we could blame
this past winter’s weather pattern disruption on the PDO.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Then I came across a study done
by the Atmospheric Science Department at the University of Washington. They
described a slightly different phenomenon, which one of their climate scientists,
Nick Bond, called, “The Blob”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">“The Blob” sounds more like science
fiction than it does science, however, the more technical name for it is the
North Pacific Mode (NPM). The NPM is similar, but a separate phenomena to the
PDO. In short, the NPM (aka the Blob) is a large area of very warm ocean temperatures
that extend up along the West Coast and across the Gulf of Alaska in a
horseshoe pattern. That warm water also extends down into the sea 300 feet
deep.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">According to their recent paper published by the American Geophysical
Union,<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>the University of Washington scientists
found<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>that “The Blob’s” origins are
related to,</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"> “</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">a
persistent high-pressure ridge that caused a calmer ocean during the past two
winters, so less heat was lost to cold air above. The warmer temperatures we
see now aren’t due to more heating, but less winter cooling.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">In other words, the ocean never cooled down this past fall and winter,
like it usually does, and high-pressure stayed put, creating a blocking pattern
in the Pacific that would not go away.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Blocking Highs</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">When big, tall, warm ridges of
high-pressure form in the atmosphere they tend to persist, and that is exactly
what occurred this winter. That big ridge essentially cut the western U.S. off from
the flow of Pacific moisture and left us in a warmer and drier weather regime,
with only a few brief storm periods.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Those big ridges in the
atmosphere are like a standing wave in a river, usually caused by a big boulder
that disrupts the normal flow. Just downstream of that big, tall wave is a big
eddy, or trough. That is what the eastern U.S. was under most of last winter, a
large, cold trough of Low-pressure. And what did we name that weather monster?
The “Polar Vortex”. Not a new concept, just a catchier name.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This standing wave weather
pattern –ridge to the west and trough to the east- was hard to break, and
persisted for much of January, February, and March 2015. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coincidentally, when the “Blob” was at its
peak.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The next time somebody asks you
why this past winter was so weird; you can tell them it was “The Blob”. Let’s
just hope the Pacific Ocean continues to cool and we don’t have to endure
watching “The Blob 2” next winter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Posy by Jim Woodmencey </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">(Note: This post is re-printed from the original article that appeared in the <i>Jackson Hole News & Guide's</i> Mountain Weather Column in April 2015. )</span></div>
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Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-65807443852660837472015-05-04T11:40:00.001-06:002015-05-04T11:40:09.088-06:00Jackson Hole's Winter 2014-15 Reviewed<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsTEFtsSNeNkXJWEivfPf2B8mLV0goo5PmyXOkxxLCCM8KwG1vcQKc7T67TP15twhz-yZE0pZ48k3dxScCqfXwuRKFuQvMVfC08OJ3PXo913igNdIjX3V8jqYj7n1BKymKDC7weNa_bCGi/s1600/met+Jim+W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsTEFtsSNeNkXJWEivfPf2B8mLV0goo5PmyXOkxxLCCM8KwG1vcQKc7T67TP15twhz-yZE0pZ48k3dxScCqfXwuRKFuQvMVfC08OJ3PXo913igNdIjX3V8jqYj7n1BKymKDC7weNa_bCGi/s200/met+Jim+W.jpg" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">This winter began pretty much the same way it ended, with
people thinking about mowing their lawns. Those thoughts were squashed at both
ends with abrupt changes from warm and sunny to cold and snowy.</span>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In this week’s column I will review the winter season and
see how it stacked up against the historic records. In brief, I am sure everyone
would agree it was warm and relatively dry. But here are all the details to put
it in perspective, from beginning to bitter end.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /><br />Late Fall</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Think back to the first week of November, when temperatures were
in the lower 60’s in Jackson, and in the 50’s for the start of the second week
of November. The grass was green, the birds were chirping, and no one was
thinking of heading south. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Heck, it was
54-degrees on Sunday afternoon November 9th. Then it snowed the next day. Five
inches in town, over a foot in the mountains, followed by record cold temperatures
for early November. Overnight lows in Jackson got down to 22-below zero on
November 16.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">So much for mowing the lawn, everyone figured it was
“game-on” at that point. Some headed south, others waxed skis. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">November snowfall finished strong; with almost triple the
normal monthly snowfall in town, 28 inches compared to an average of 10 inches.
November was also more than three degrees colder than normal. And it would end
up that November was the snowiest month of the season, and the only one with
below normal temperatures.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">December-January</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">December was about as close to normal as you can get for
snowfall in town, with 19 inches in December 2014, compared to an average of 18
inches. In the mountains, at the bottom of Rendezvous Bowl at JHMR, there was
76 inches of snowfall, normal December snowfall is 79 inches.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">December started the trend of warmer temperatures, ending up
four degrees warmer than normal. January temps were only one degree above
normal, when you compare monthly mean temperatures, that is, the average of the
monthly average high and low temps.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">February-March</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">February was the fourth warmest on record in Jackson, with
the mean temperature for the month a full eight degrees above normal. Total snowfall
in town was only four inches, well below the norm of 12 inches for the month. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">February snowfall in the mountains was well below normal
also, with 48 inches compared to the average of 67 inches in February.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">March was cold for the first few days, then whimpered
heavily as we hit a spell of warm and dry weather that lasted from March 6th
through March 23rd. That spell peaked when we hit 60-degrees for the first time
this year on March 16th. Hardly any snow fell in town, and the grand total for
the month was just four inches, less than half the average of nine inches.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The mountains didn’t fair much better, with a total of just
23 inches at Rendezvous Bowl in March. Average March snowfall is 65 inches at
that location. Not the grimmest March ever in the mountains, that distinction
belongs to March of 1994 with just 16 inches. March of 2007 was another bleak
one, with only 18 inches of total snowfall up there in March.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Winter Snow Totals</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">For the four-month period, December through March, the Town
of Jackson had 40 inches of snow or 68-percent of normal, the average is 59
inches. However, if you were to include the snowfall we got in November, that
would push the total snowfall to 68 inches. Normal snowfall for the five months
is 69 inches. So, that would mean we had a pretty normal “snowfall season”, with
99-percent of our average snowfall for November through March. How about that
for a stat!</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Same thing was true with the water in that snow, December
through March was 74-percent of normal for the four month period. Toss
November’s water in there and we were 96-percent of normal precipitation for
the five month period.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The mountains received 202 inches for December through March
or 68-percent of normal, the average is 295 inches. If you pile November’s snow
on top of that, it brings the entire season’s snowfall total up to about
81-percent of normal at JHMR. Once again, November carried us through an
otherwise dry winter season. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"> </span>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Winter Temps</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Temperature-wise this winter we ended up about 4-degrees
warmer than normal in Jackson, when you look at the average mean temperature
for the four-month period, December through March. The historic average mean
winter temperature would be about 21-degrees, this winter we had an average
mean temperature of 25-degrees. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">That would make the Winter of 2014-15 the sixth warmest
winter on record in town. The Winters of 2004-05, 2002-03, 1999-00, 1994-95,
and 1952-53 were all warmer than this one, for the four-month period. That is
still quite a feat to string together four winter months in a row with above
normal mean monthly temperatures.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">We should count ourselves lucky, compared to many other
areas around the Western United States this winter. Our snowfall was way ahead
of everyone else, west of the Mississippi, and temperatures at elevation stayed
cold enough to preserve the snow until the end. The Eastern United States was
the complete opposite of the West this winter, much colder, and much, much
snowier than normal.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Looks like I’ve run out of space, so I will have to save any
discussion of “why” this winter was like it was for a future column. For now,
get out and enjoy your last licks of the ski season.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">(*Note: This blog post originally appeared in the JH News & Guide April 1 2015).<br /> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">mountainweather.com
</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">and has been
forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for more than 20
years.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-78352223422906052032015-01-05T09:01:00.003-07:002015-01-05T16:50:09.919-07:00Big Snow & Blow in the Tetons<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAt0GKa2BNthRDsejPA_GYcbsp92vzG57nq1wHQpQBIL0u6NBC-xou00DKTsib0dwFWuRikrkLIRm3BpChgWfSijOReKppjizm8UEkk0B-mz1I7uizc7VlWVa8mh-7rDlMSqZcoC28RQt7/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAt0GKa2BNthRDsejPA_GYcbsp92vzG57nq1wHQpQBIL0u6NBC-xou00DKTsib0dwFWuRikrkLIRm3BpChgWfSijOReKppjizm8UEkk0B-mz1I7uizc7VlWVa8mh-7rDlMSqZcoC28RQt7/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span class="userContent">Lots of SNOW & wind for Jackson Hole, ski areas and weather instruments around the mountains reporting 20 to 26 inches of new snow from Friday night through Monday morning in the Teton Mountains. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="userContent">But, this is
not technically a big "storm system". It is a STORM, and we are getting very stormy weather.....but it is not being generated from a typical low pressure system, or what we would call a storm system.</span><br />
<br />
<span class="userContent">This is a strong Northwest Flow aloft
that is carrying moisture over the top of a Ridge of High pr<span class="text_exposed_show">essure that is parked over the Western U.S.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show"></span></span><br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show">Yes, this is sometimes referred to as a "Dirty Ridge", when moisture rides over the northern periphery of the Ridge axis and causes some weather, rather than the clear skies we normally experience when directly underneath the Ridge itself (like California is right now).<br /><br />
There is no Trof of Low pressure in the upper atmosphere anywhere nearby. Just a weak surface Low pressure over Montana. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show">But this is one of the best
ways to produce snow in the Tetons, with a very moist and strong NW
flow. <br /><br /> -- 700mb map and Satellite photo shows flow and moisture (RH) in that flow.<br />-- Surface Map shows the overall weather pattern with High pressure to south & west of Wyoming, and a stationary front east of the Continental Divide, with warm air to the west of that line and colder air to the east of that line.</span></span><br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show"><br /> -- Snowfall forecast map is for Monday morning thru Tuesday morning.<br /> Good snow producer across the northern Rockies. Nothing going on to the south of Idaho or Wyoming with this current flow.</span></span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIotiiQgrhU-MiofJw7MYWBWrTN7eTJmYaSWT-TcdzC18fWpcf6R_xGHah43tUZCz3n53OH5kct7LgPG03oH-MULKIef3mnPXD7tWj5sgE12HbiBdojp4uQ31yfRnTm56DiDzUrgU7LySI/s1600/05JAN15-IR4.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIotiiQgrhU-MiofJw7MYWBWrTN7eTJmYaSWT-TcdzC18fWpcf6R_xGHah43tUZCz3n53OH5kct7LgPG03oH-MULKIef3mnPXD7tWj5sgE12HbiBdojp4uQ31yfRnTm56DiDzUrgU7LySI/s1600/05JAN15-IR4.GIF" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Infra-Red Satellite 0800 MST 05JAN15</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9iW4bm4Nx1JFEz2iFN_8c4XAxAAdz88cm-bAcmt6veifMtoB6oYRNrap5fm_xU1-edzD-eVdv0PMGOEX8BTPtqOn0mnnfKqKRsnnDbCRWml4lsJMQZLaFdFhQ2PArVJl2S0ryCRY9U4Ff/s1600/05JAN15-700mb.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9iW4bm4Nx1JFEz2iFN_8c4XAxAAdz88cm-bAcmt6veifMtoB6oYRNrap5fm_xU1-edzD-eVdv0PMGOEX8BTPtqOn0mnnfKqKRsnnDbCRWml4lsJMQZLaFdFhQ2PArVJl2S0ryCRY9U4Ff/s1600/05JAN15-700mb.gif" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">700mb or @ 10,000-ft. 0500 MST 05JAN15</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-G66TRGtavcocnegWaQTrnkgt4stEOMx1ZGLON8d7RUHU2IKEle7-UpuNetA8etYcyQ6ueV1cCYHa2TxUSU3N049XI00VVh5trxdWFDxfuZ0M5JBXjqRoqwbjhMAcvjCW1wvV_ZX2x4MA/s1600/05JAN15-sfcmap.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-G66TRGtavcocnegWaQTrnkgt4stEOMx1ZGLON8d7RUHU2IKEle7-UpuNetA8etYcyQ6ueV1cCYHa2TxUSU3N049XI00VVh5trxdWFDxfuZ0M5JBXjqRoqwbjhMAcvjCW1wvV_ZX2x4MA/s1600/05JAN15-sfcmap.gif" height="448" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surface Map 0500 MST 05JAN15<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1RrMZ9qaYMDuNUyugwsqv2-RCwXD84Di6vJdri-Dwk7zS920p2u9FhEayuBCCRT-1Et9lG3yMZss9Ls_IUkLnS2_r7R5Pa_usLUx6_rrro6TXV77SmvxYFYrzZt9vR1tsbtni4AGmzt1J/s1600/05-06JAN15FxSnow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1RrMZ9qaYMDuNUyugwsqv2-RCwXD84Di6vJdri-Dwk7zS920p2u9FhEayuBCCRT-1Et9lG3yMZss9Ls_IUkLnS2_r7R5Pa_usLUx6_rrro6TXV77SmvxYFYrzZt9vR1tsbtni4AGmzt1J/s1600/05-06JAN15FxSnow.png" height="491" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Snowfall forecast map 05 to 06 JAN 2015</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show"></span></span><br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show"></span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show">Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></span><br />
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show">05JAN15</span></span>
<span class="userContent"><span class="text_exposed_show"><span id="goog_1173290471"></span><span id="goog_1173290472"></span><br /></span></span>Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-21549050230522267572014-12-26T09:39:00.003-07:002014-12-26T09:39:48.136-07:00Understanding Winter Weather Warnings
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This past year, I became what is
known as a “Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Ambassador” The WRN program started in
2011 and it partners private meteorologists, like myself, with NOAA and
National Weather Service forecasters, to help spread the word and educate
people about how to be prepared for hazardous weather conditions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">In this day and age of the
Internet, Facebooking, Tweeting, NIXLE alerts, etc. there is virtually no
reason we should not all be getting the message when extreme or hazardous weather
is on the way.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">For instance, on my website
mountainweather.com on the Jackson Hole Forecast page, whenever the NWS in
Riverton issues any kind of weather alert, advisory, watch or warning for Teton
County Wyoming, a red box appears above the forecast. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This box works great for the big
stuff, but it becomes a bit annoying when there is an “Alert!” issued for things
like: colder temperatures, valley fog, or slick driving conditions. These are
things that would be extreme weather events in L.A., but this is Wyoming, and I
think we can handle that sort of stuff on a daily basis.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">What is more important than an
“Alert”, is an “Advisory” or most importantly, a “Watch” or “Warning”, of more
severe weather. Weather that might cause a true Wyomingite to take heed. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Here are some links to the "Ready Weather Nation" websites:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html#.VJ2LwAOAA" target="_blank">Ready Weather Nation</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/#.VJ2L3AOAA" target="_blank">NOAA Weather Warnings</a></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Advisories</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The National Weather Service will
issue Winter Weather “Advisories” to alert the public to weather situations
that may present a hazard. “Advisories” are for weather that may cause significant
inconvenience or difficulty to travelers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Although, these weather situations should not be life threatening.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The most common Advisories issued
during the winter are:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">1) Winter Weather Advisory:<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>Issued
for snow events or when a combination of precipitation is expected, such as:
snow, sleet, freezing rain, or blowing snow.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">2) Snow Advisory: Issued when snowfall
is expected to be between 3 and 6 inches in 24 hours in valley locations. For mountain
locations the criteria is for 6 to 12 inches of accumulation within 24 hours.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">3) Blowing Snow Advisory:<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Issued when wind-driven snow intermittently
reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Watches and Warnings</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">“Watches” and “Warnings” are more
serious business than advisories.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Winter Storm Watch means: Be Prepared!
The NWS issues these when conditions are favorable for dangerous winter weather
to occur. It does not mean it will occur, but you should start making
preparations in case it does.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Watches are intended to provide
enough lead-time so that people can adjust their schedules. They may be issued
up to 48 hours in advance of the event and often will precede a “Warning”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Winter Storm Warning means: Take
Action!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">A warning is issued when a
winter storm is imminent or occurring. If you hear a warning, immediately go
home or seek shelter until it is safe to travel again. Blizzards, extreme cold
and windchill can quickly become deadly outside.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Winter Storm Warnings<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>are usually issued when heavy snow and/or
strong wind are possible. Heavy snow means that snowfall is expected to exceed
6 inches per event in the valley. For mountain locations it is 12 inches or
more per event. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Blizzard Warnings imply strong
winds of 35 mph or greater, cold temperatures, and considerable falling and/or
blowing snow that frequently drops visibility to ¼ mile or less. These
conditions are expected to last for 3 hours or longer.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">While a "Winter Storm
Warning" may not necessarily translate into a “big dump” for skiers, it should
at least prepare you to be cognizant of bad visibility, and some “western”
driving conditions. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Unfortunately, there are times
when I feel like we are being “over-warned”, and we run the risk of suffering
from the “cry wolf syndrome”. That is, we stop paying attention to the
warnings, because they come too often, in the form of alerts or advisories,
that may seem like just everyday winter weather here in Jackson Hole. Hopefully
this article helps to sort out the most important stuff, and explains some of
the lesser weather events we may get alerted to during the winter. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> (This article was re-printed in part from the Mountain Weather Column in the Jackson Hole News & Guide)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Jim is the chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">mountainweather.com </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">and has been forecasting the
weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years.</span></span></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-40648121442222571432014-11-26T04:29:00.000-07:002014-11-26T04:29:11.912-07:00Winter Outlook 2014-15<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMyaHcQkLTxuM7S-S9mueLu-TZU60lQ2nGbaRnIQ6Kj77p2dK7yNjmfLALLy1GfKjyZrCTFkdhly17ktaUF5IhS5PWEy7Id9wcArPK4CeOUeT1UykmmhZOMAU1ZEASTuY52iHRSGBPFzMl/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMyaHcQkLTxuM7S-S9mueLu-TZU60lQ2nGbaRnIQ6Kj77p2dK7yNjmfLALLy1GfKjyZrCTFkdhly17ktaUF5IhS5PWEy7Id9wcArPK4CeOUeT1UykmmhZOMAU1ZEASTuY52iHRSGBPFzMl/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i>(Note: This blog post was re-printed from the Mountain Weather column in the JH News & Guide, Nov. 12, 2014).<br /> </i><br />Even with the recent snowfall in mid-November, it is a rare
day this time of year when someone doesn’t ask me, “What kind of winter are we
going to have?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know what they are
really thinking, they want to know how much powder will we get this winter?
Will it be the epic winter to end all winters, or will it just be mediocre, or
will it be a total bust?</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In an attempt to answer these questions, and save me from
having to repeat myself over and over for the next month or so, in this week’s
column I will take a look at some of the long-range outlooks and predictions
for this coming winter’s weather.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Farmer’s Almanac</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">One of the most oft-quoted sources of long-range weather
prediction is the Farmer’s Almanac. I usually defer to the Old Farmer’s
Almanac, the original, familiar, yellow-cover Robert B. Thomas Farmer’s Almanac
that was founded in 1792. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Other Almanacs may claim to have been around longer, but
this one is the one I have accumulating on my bookshelf from the past 20 years
or so. I will tell you what info I plucked out of this year’s edition for this
part of western Wyoming, but I will warn you, you may want to cover your eyes
or skip this next paragraph, especially if you are prone to weather paranoia.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2015 has most of the western U.S.
painted into the “mild & dry” category. Western Wyoming and Idaho are
expected to have above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall, but above
normal precipitation.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">I take that to mean, we may see more rain down low, but it
should translate to snow up at higher elevations.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Only the Desert Southwest, Arizona and New Mexico fell into
the “cold & snowy” categorization. Well, the Midwestern U.S. and the
Atlantic Coast, from New Jersey to Rhode Island, also fell into the “cold &
snowy” regime, but who cares, there’s no good powder skiing there anyhow.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Now, before you get your Gore-Tex pants in a bunch, let’s
look at what the Old Farmer’s Almanac said about last year. They said it would
be “cold and snowy”, technically it wasn’t all that cold, and only February and
March were snowy. But I’ll give it to them and say that was an accurate
forecast of last winter.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">But wait, how did they do forecasting the weather this past
summer? Oops, they called for “hot & normal precipitation”. That couldn’t
be further from correct, as we had a cooler and wetter than normal summer.
Therefore, the Almanac’s accuracy rate just dropped to 50-percent.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Climate Prediction Center</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Now let’s take a look at what the CPC (Climate Prediction
Center) has to say about this coming winter. The CPC is the</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"> branch of the National Weather
Service that is responsible for doing the long-range weather predicting for the
United States.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The CPC has
a team of meteorologists and climatologists who sit around all week trying to
figure out what the weather is going to do months ahead of time. What they do
after a 40-hour workweek of analysis is they assign a probability to whether
temperatures or precipitation are going to be above or below normal, for a
month or three-month time period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpFirst" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">When their confidence is high, the probability
percentage goes up. When they can’t make up their minds for a certain portion
of the country, for instance, then they just say there will be “Equal Chances”
(EC) of it being above normal, below normal, or near normal. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">For this winter, the CPC is pretty confident that we
will have above normal temperatures all winter long. However, after a 40-hour
workweek, they apparently still have no opinion on how much precipitation we
should expect, as we are in the EC category from December to April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(See table).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Last year the CPC had us under above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation for November-December-January.
Which was not the case. They then gave us “Equal Chances” for the second half
of the winter, January-February-March. Seems like the safe bet, in this case
they can be correct, no matter what happens.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Are you getting the feeling that maybe putting your
faith in long-range forecasts is a waste of time? As I have always maintained,
it is difficult enough trying to figure out what tomorrow’s weather will be,
let alone the weather two or three months from now. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoteLevel1CxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; tab-stops: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">But here is my prediction for this winter anyway: We
will have “Equal Chances” of the powder skiing being better than it has ever
been, worse than last year, or just as good as it always is in Jackson Hole. </span></div>
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<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="3" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.15in;" valign="top" width="443">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Climate Prediction Center <br />
Winter Outlook 2014-15</span></b></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial;">3-Month Outlooks</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Temperatures</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Precipitation</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Dec-Jan-Feb</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Above (33%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">EC</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Jan-Feb-Mar</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Above (40%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">EC</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Feb-Mar-Apr</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Above (40%)</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.05in;" valign="top" width="148">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">EC</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="3" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.15in;" valign="top" width="443">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Probability of above or below is given in a percent,
higher percentage relates to high confidence. “EC” means that the CPC
believes there are “Equal Chances” of being above, below, or normal.</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">mountainweather.com </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years. </span></span></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-47237053061510203112014-09-04T08:51:00.001-06:002014-09-04T08:51:21.304-06:00Wet August in Jackson and Snow in Tetons<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8WCqrEWIxeLyJrhZUUnKOG_HOF4P5tHipS_zzi-6ez5O3leRXb6OpLS3RbC3CJBfjj8erlAiRcX9Zf592-IBK_zJlotyD9f_bQ-ihYDUV0d8HWV-4Qb3vlBMmdYiSQlLgAD7dqH_2a3gT/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8WCqrEWIxeLyJrhZUUnKOG_HOF4P5tHipS_zzi-6ez5O3leRXb6OpLS3RbC3CJBfjj8erlAiRcX9Zf592-IBK_zJlotyD9f_bQ-ihYDUV0d8HWV-4Qb3vlBMmdYiSQlLgAD7dqH_2a3gT/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It was a much wetter than normal August here in Jackson, as well as in most of Idaho and Wyoming. The Southwestern US from Arizona to Utah was exceptionally wet also.<br />
Early in August it was all about the monsoon, then it was about some cold Low pressure systems the last two weekends, that left behind some decent snowfall in the higher Tetons.<br />
<br />
Read all about his past August's weather in the Mountain Weather column of this week's <a href="http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/" target="_blank">Jackson Hole News & Guide.</a><br />
<br />
Some pics of the snow up high in the Tetons from these last two storms below:<br />
<br />
These first three are from the first cold storm August 22 to 24, 2014<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAhipVlbJiZTna5kuEPZ1h5zk_sONVcOMsR9XVpyobme8-jy9NQNU_rvBvLAVqrToZu2OweQZ3so_CqlAvo0agQj8U-i1sdgp6OWq-E1qGBhsHWGih_IbaogfgDvneB1FHThKC0T8UbLV9/s1600/Houndog-BlackRockChimney.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAhipVlbJiZTna5kuEPZ1h5zk_sONVcOMsR9XVpyobme8-jy9NQNU_rvBvLAVqrToZu2OweQZ3so_CqlAvo0agQj8U-i1sdgp6OWq-E1qGBhsHWGih_IbaogfgDvneB1FHThKC0T8UbLV9/s1600/Houndog-BlackRockChimney.JPG" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Black Rock Chimney between Lower & Upper Saddles-Grand Teton.<br />Photo courtesy of Mike Ruth (August 23)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiObE9r1A1OEf_jFqB8XKG-1ck9W5714q7w88ltdKYohZcMoQtYx2uSSfRQ81BGRZs2imBn6LBOdkPy7sgFopWH8OySeMefvOD77A3tm8R8W8Y5a-5ccVrTX7mUFfpOPAGuSwWEytxQqJNc/s1600/Valhalla-24AUG14.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiObE9r1A1OEf_jFqB8XKG-1ck9W5714q7w88ltdKYohZcMoQtYx2uSSfRQ81BGRZs2imBn6LBOdkPy7sgFopWH8OySeMefvOD77A3tm8R8W8Y5a-5ccVrTX7mUFfpOPAGuSwWEytxQqJNc/s1600/Valhalla-24AUG14.JPG" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Looking up Valhalla Canyon at west side of Grand Teton, from Cascade Canyon (August 24)<br />Photo Jim Woodmencey</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxFtUa2lbkPP4ZHcWlQgDa3_gJ5hRgn-evU-fj-6Ge8qVB8zBTzscN99SQ-c1q2JDdwj9pi1kbBzfXSg_f2RD1HEMbeg-lKeFMDEjgciiWWfXB3hHzFN7fXlu4Up3B5LEnZGrvacI9KWG/s1600/SOUTH-TETON-25AUG14-SPedersen.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxFtUa2lbkPP4ZHcWlQgDa3_gJ5hRgn-evU-fj-6Ge8qVB8zBTzscN99SQ-c1q2JDdwj9pi1kbBzfXSg_f2RD1HEMbeg-lKeFMDEjgciiWWfXB3hHzFN7fXlu4Up3B5LEnZGrvacI9KWG/s1600/SOUTH-TETON-25AUG14-SPedersen.gif" height="400" width="361" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nearing the summit of the South Teton (August 25)<br />Photo Scott Pedersen</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
These last three photos are from the second cold storm August 30-31, 2014 <br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcNEgBN71xW_fiSw3DQuEqU9Xr6bcPzEeIQVDfEB7_wpDDJoFH6Q6V_BCTgZ2PFD1h8Y888zm0QbHeNyPTZ5RaKuqTDY3F4soOwt-lDeA6H1GcfCAACLTPggVLJf-SYEM63K4bKRvSP7D6/s1600/fixed-rope-LS-DBowers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcNEgBN71xW_fiSw3DQuEqU9Xr6bcPzEeIQVDfEB7_wpDDJoFH6Q6V_BCTgZ2PFD1h8Y888zm0QbHeNyPTZ5RaKuqTDY3F4soOwt-lDeA6H1GcfCAACLTPggVLJf-SYEM63K4bKRvSP7D6/s1600/fixed-rope-LS-DBowers.jpg" height="263" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">On the fixed ropes below the Lower Saddle of the Grand on morning of August 31.<br />Thse photos all courtesy of David Bowers.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9vXkb74XuXBkqu0gS8awPLwuF6Nat2DksbzcemlkEEQkCCnT2atapN9v9jm3OmSfgPUW63ka0sBmqXkK1Jydi4XvyPoxFz0aywjAMBjZPmqXUngg150K-JtUH_dtDXvC1LwOB4UOABeMI/s1600/LSHut31AUG14-DBowers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9vXkb74XuXBkqu0gS8awPLwuF6Nat2DksbzcemlkEEQkCCnT2atapN9v9jm3OmSfgPUW63ka0sBmqXkK1Jydi4XvyPoxFz0aywjAMBjZPmqXUngg150K-JtUH_dtDXvC1LwOB4UOABeMI/s1600/LSHut31AUG14-DBowers.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lower Saddle Exum Hut August 31</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin95uNtRKUBn2X8Zfh5cVrIFsGQ4NJQFId2v4x72kAEyNTzrp-EPcCWMHNIIwK1sXeqpHexxyaPmiahVrM6QHfWZdNen1ZTyjoQk_4S-4e3O5cahSmiC_5infNXFZLTRr6WCpI9GrHD5-P/s1600/LS-north-DBowers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin95uNtRKUBn2X8Zfh5cVrIFsGQ4NJQFId2v4x72kAEyNTzrp-EPcCWMHNIIwK1sXeqpHexxyaPmiahVrM6QHfWZdNen1ZTyjoQk_4S-4e3O5cahSmiC_5infNXFZLTRr6WCpI9GrHD5-P/s1600/LS-north-DBowers.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Looking North towards the Upper Saddle from Lower Saddle Hut</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey <br />
<br />
<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-42937640277599023292014-08-08T08:51:00.002-06:002014-08-16T07:22:06.862-06:00July Not as Hot as it used to be....<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOGzyXp9H4M6eMTXZQ19EIHA6v472h2ZAzEvgrofERIkFaMqOnhpgNxI39uB6jGZ6k_0rwxX3k-aC7dcz_oJqgr6zZbjYNR3wd1YGcIYbh3k2jUf7VkzTO2AkWb7xCk57EmA6NTE6jY64q/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOGzyXp9H4M6eMTXZQ19EIHA6v472h2ZAzEvgrofERIkFaMqOnhpgNxI39uB6jGZ6k_0rwxX3k-aC7dcz_oJqgr6zZbjYNR3wd1YGcIYbh3k2jUf7VkzTO2AkWb7xCk57EmA6NTE6jY64q/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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(Reposted from the Mountain Weather column in Aug. 6 <i>Jackson Hole News & Guide</i>).<br /><br />I heard some complaining in late July that it was “too hot”, which sparked some memories of Julys not so long ago, which truly were “hot”. This July was not.<br /><br />That also prompted me to dig back through the records to see which Julys were the hottest here in Jackson. What I found may surprise you, or at least it should cause you to apologize for any whining you may have done about the heat this July.<br /><br /> To no one’s surprise, July is normally the hottest month of the year here in Jackson. Our average high temperature in July is 82 degrees (actually 81.8) over the last 80-some years of climatological record.<br /><br />July of 2014 had an average high temperature of 80-degrees, two degrees below normal. There was one day this July (the 23rd) that some thermometers in town hit 90-degrees. However, the highest temperature recorded “officially” at the Town of Jackson Climate Station was 87-degrees. Close, but no 90-degree readings this July.<br /><br />As a matter of fact, upon further investigation I discovered that we have not seen a temperature reading of 90-degrees at the Jackson Climate Station since August 1, 2008. Prior to that, there were quite a few.<br />
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<br />Official Hottest <br /><br />Probably the best way to gauge a “hot” July is to look at the average high temperature for the month. Another way is to count how many days we hit 90-degrees or above, which usually coincides with those average high temperatures.<br /><br />Prior to the early 2000’s, July of 1988 was the hottest July on record. That was the famous summer of the Yellowstone Fires, and the average high in Jackson was 88-degrees (actually 87.6). We had eight days with high temperatures of 90-degrees or warmer that July. I should also mention there were four days that weather readings were not recorded in July 1988, which might have pushed that average even higher.<br /><br />Then along came July 2003, which set the new record with an average high of 90-degrees (actually 90.2). There was a whopping 17 days that July with high temperatures of 90-degrees or warmer, more than twice as many as in July 1988. There were no missing days of weather readings that month. <br /><br />Other Julys of note were: July 2007, with an average high of 88-degrees and 13 days that went into the 90’s. And also July 2000, which had an average high of 87-degrees and 11 days in the 90’s. <br /><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDjEDWXuiBwRgFJMf3rPdpbWVULq30n7hU-bycFYRHN2XCKL5puef6VFIlv0j2DeZmXHN0ibIyQuQzJwKCwz_X678-XaXEmbrfPaSzoFFndawqQCyKjr-0GNGY0aWTdbvEPH0a50Pojale/s1600/graph+copy.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDjEDWXuiBwRgFJMf3rPdpbWVULq30n7hU-bycFYRHN2XCKL5puef6VFIlv0j2DeZmXHN0ibIyQuQzJwKCwz_X678-XaXEmbrfPaSzoFFndawqQCyKjr-0GNGY0aWTdbvEPH0a50Pojale/s1600/graph+copy.jpg" height="412" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From Jackson, WY Climate Station records. Note, there were no records for 2012.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Unofficial Hottest<br /><br />In order to be included in the monthly average temperature record, there cannot be too many missing weather readings. Months that have five or more missing days are not considered when calculating our averages. <br /><br />There is a July in our official climate record that was likely even hotter than 2003. Unfortunately, there were too many missing days in the record, but I thought it interesting enough to give it an honorable mention. That was way back in July of 1934. <br /><br />The climate station at that time was located somewhere in the valley to the south and west of town. The observer was Albert Butler, and I would love to know if anyone related is still living in Jackson. <br /><br />Perhaps Mr. Butler was too busy haying his fields that July and he missed his daily weather readings 11 out of 31 days. Yet, of the remaining 20 days, he did record 14 days with high temperatures of 90-degrees or hotter. His average high temperature in July 1934 was 92-degrees (92.5 actually). <br /><br />But here is the real kicker, he recorded two days that month, on July 17 and 20, with a high temperature of 101-degrees. And that is the highest temperature we have, for any month, in the official weather records for Jackson. <br /><br />Cooling Trend<br /><br />I did not have time to go back through and look at the entire temperature history for July in Jackson to see all the ups and downs between 1934 and 2014. However, there is an obvious trend that you may have noticed if you have lived here for at least the last 15 years.<br /><br />Looking at the average high temperatures in July from 2000 to 2014, we were on the uphill climb with some very warm Julys from 2000 to 2007. Since then, we have seen a cooling trend, from 2008 through 2014. (See graph).<br /><br />If you complained in the early 2000’s about the July heat, it was warranted. If you have complained about the heat in recent July’s, it has been unjustified, because July in Jackson is not as hot as it used to be.<br /><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Summary of July High Temperatures in Jackson WY</b><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(*From Jackson Hole Climate Station historical data).</span></div>
<ul>
<li>The historic average high temperature in Jackson in July is 82-degrees.</li>
<li>Average high temperature for July 2014 was 80-degrees.</li>
<li>No days in July 2014 that were "officially" 90-degrees or warmer.</li>
<li>Hottest July ever was in 2003, with an average high of 90-degrees.</li>
<li>July 2003 had 17 days of 90-degrees or warmer.</li>
<li>The last time we hit 90-degrees in Jackson (officially at the Climate Station) was back on August 1, 2008.</li>
</ul>
<br />Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years.<br /><br />
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Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey<br />
<a href="mailto:jim@mountainweather.com">jim@mountainweather.com</a><br />
<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-28366296340634769712014-08-06T17:32:00.001-06:002014-08-07T04:59:20.165-06:00The Monsoon Explained<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAkr4yfWkFlkZS3XOMwJ65amEqUXcRhLFwNrUeeGsqSRzXiN5ENTSme1Nv1Uga0Ym3kiXMdQaxtvrqtOjLHeaRbrJcjWTWDinkjT-qQ_o2nmPpn6MsFVr-Y1l1PI9VC0_CWX1JwFVobzCd/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAkr4yfWkFlkZS3XOMwJ65amEqUXcRhLFwNrUeeGsqSRzXiN5ENTSme1Nv1Uga0Ym3kiXMdQaxtvrqtOjLHeaRbrJcjWTWDinkjT-qQ_o2nmPpn6MsFVr-Y1l1PI9VC0_CWX1JwFVobzCd/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">A couple of summers ago I posted an explanation of the "Monsoon" on this blog, seemed appropriate to re-visit that this week.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">We were getting some good surges of moisture from the Desert Southwest Monsoon this week,
with rain and thunderstorms plaguing us, and some heavy downpors with late day thunderstorms the last two days (August 5 & 6, 2014).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">If
you happen to read my forecast discussions on the JH Forecast page of www.mountainweather.com or perhaps you listen to my forecast rap in the mornings on the radio
(iMix 92.3 FM) you will frequently hear me mention
“monsoon moisture”, during the summer months.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: 100%;"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 100%;">The term “monsoon” comes from the Arabic word <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">mausim, </i>which
means “a season”. It refers to the large-scale wind flow that lasts for
a whole season near the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.<br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">A
"monsoon", therefore, is simply a seasonal wind flow pattern. The
Desert Southwest Monsoon that occurs in the United States is similar to
the Asian Monsoon that affects India and the Himalayas during this same
time of year, from July to early September.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">The
North American version of the monsoon kind of originates over the interior of
Mexico, where very moist (i.e. humid), tropical air is converging over
the land from the Pacific Ocean to the west and from the Gulf of Mexico
to the east. That moisture is then drawn northward by southerly winds
over the hot, dry deserts of the Southwest. This causes frequent strong
thunderstorms over New Mexico and Arizona.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Often
in July and August the monsoon will surge up into Utah and Colorado,
causing thunderstorms over the deserts of southern Utah and western
Colorado. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Some of these thunderstorms create flash flooding situations in the canyon country of the Southwest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: small;">A
few times a summer that monsoon moisture will reach as far north as
Northwest Wyoming and Southwest Montana, causing thunderstorms here,
which are often some of the strongest of the summer season.<br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "; font-size: small;">The
typical weather pattern that sets up in July and August that will transport the monsoon moisture this far north is when a thermal Low
pressure (dry low pressure caused by heating) develops over southeast
California and western Arizona, at the same time High pressure develops
over eastern Texas. Then when a Low pressure system or upper level Trof
of Low pressure moves into the Northwest U.S., that helps draw that
monsoon moisture northward. (See today's weather map, which kind of shows that pattern, but not as well defined as some years).</span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7UwvGVHGvjN8cfA0U0WnUd0vwNiTn9X-GqhytC3ireRgvj98z9QuKkr1ZlnNihj55m4_t4ywdWPIdzpxKctGah2c_Nd3I2Grz0hVOmfgWU8KyptO-oHZAbGoQ_5-hhPfqwtBlzJx1LW9_/s1600/06AUG14+sfc+map.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7UwvGVHGvjN8cfA0U0WnUd0vwNiTn9X-GqhytC3ireRgvj98z9QuKkr1ZlnNihj55m4_t4ywdWPIdzpxKctGah2c_Nd3I2Grz0hVOmfgWU8KyptO-oHZAbGoQ_5-hhPfqwtBlzJx1LW9_/s1600/06AUG14+sfc+map.gif" height="448" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surface weather map Wed. August 6, 2014</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-size: 130%;">Monsoon Surge early August 2014</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial;">This round of monsoon moisture has been particularly WET, with flooding, landsldides, mudslides, etc. from California to Nevada, and Utah. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The downpours we had this afternoon (</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Wednesday August 6, 2014 )</span> in Jackson were aided by an upper level Trof of Low pressure that is moving over the Great Basin and making things even more unstable. Thunderstorms produced 0.40 inches of rain at my rain gauge in less than an hour! That's more than we got the previous 24-hours.</span><br />
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Here are some weather maps from today.......Wednesday August 6, 2014.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdBTKJB0L1QzHImzUVa7Tp-1xwcHEt_ZmuHT9PXvQmKh85iIIyJii0lYrskzAohs405BEdMLalScqPzVL6GB_Ll1mNRBXVmSoY3OBRbkrn_7QrPSgKN6L-VMlkcaVdL3FEAYJL2E4uvdHN/s1600/06AUG-PM+monsoon+Sat.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdBTKJB0L1QzHImzUVa7Tp-1xwcHEt_ZmuHT9PXvQmKh85iIIyJii0lYrskzAohs405BEdMLalScqPzVL6GB_Ll1mNRBXVmSoY3OBRbkrn_7QrPSgKN6L-VMlkcaVdL3FEAYJL2E4uvdHN/s1600/06AUG-PM+monsoon+Sat.GIF" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite showing extent of monsoon moisture from California to Wyoming</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ExUmEPGYMU3owsQi2jLcrAY3tGXrYR4FEmx7w9xNQEbmsc9iZRIPUTLDhY94gk9y-__IAV74AXO_tCjCnXQzkW9o3UgdOe3rK_NlCNNaO3YjBlH5QNuw_p-YQoMApp-0rj6u8KizZJ6Z/s1600/06AUG14-pm-radarPIH.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ExUmEPGYMU3owsQi2jLcrAY3tGXrYR4FEmx7w9xNQEbmsc9iZRIPUTLDhY94gk9y-__IAV74AXO_tCjCnXQzkW9o3UgdOe3rK_NlCNNaO3YjBlH5QNuw_p-YQoMApp-0rj6u8KizZJ6Z/s1600/06AUG14-pm-radarPIH.png" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pocatello Radar @ 5pm Wednesday</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGCFclz1vYxYeWzKYED8CWAmAuY2DQQ9YdAQzLjcdWWWKjm9PKJ8K0RhSLNtl4s3OE4JZrNXFdvvwbog8II7hgUlMiAaX86EvkddyhcBL-MXAIB-AcnkEzVww_AOlhCcg31P-FsXyLUVzK/s1600/06AUG14-lightning+2.tiff" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGCFclz1vYxYeWzKYED8CWAmAuY2DQQ9YdAQzLjcdWWWKjm9PKJ8K0RhSLNtl4s3OE4JZrNXFdvvwbog8II7hgUlMiAaX86EvkddyhcBL-MXAIB-AcnkEzVww_AOlhCcg31P-FsXyLUVzK/s1600/06AUG14-lightning+2.tiff" height="640" width="497" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Snow King Lightning Detector screen shot @ 5pm Wed.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey<br />
<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-67635670391753908282014-07-31T08:43:00.001-06:002014-07-31T08:43:07.613-06:00What does Probability of Precipitation Mean?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">(Re-posted from original article that appeared in the Jackson Hole News & Guide's Mountain Weather column, July 23, 2014).</span><br /><br />From where I sit, thunderstorm forecasting during the summer season is quite challenging, and on par with snowfall forecasting in the winter. Nailing down where, when and how strong the thunderstorms might be is as difficult a task as deciding where, when and how much snow will fall in the winter season, throughout the Jackson Hole area.<br />
<br />
By definition, if there is thunder, there is lightning. And with any
thunderstorm, it is implied that there could also be heavy downpours,
and/or gusty winds, and/or hail involved. Or, all of the above!<br /><br />In this week’s column, I will give you some insight into how those forecasts are made, and what they really mean. Maybe that will help you when planning your next outdoor activity.<br /><br /><span style="font-size: small;"><b>PoP</b></span><br /><br />Most weather forecasts will provide you with a “probability of precipitation”, or PoP, which might say something like: “30-percent chance of showers today”. That is often interpreted to mean, “it is going to rain for 30-percent of the day”, or “30-percent of the area will get precipitation”. Actually, neither of those is totally accurate. <br /><br />The correct meteorological translation of “Probability of Precipitation” is: “The likelihood of occurrence of a measurable amount of precipitation (at least 0.01 inches) at any given point within the forecast area.” The same could be said for the probability of thunderstorms occurring.<br /><br />From the National Weather Service, PoP is defined mathematically as follows:<br />PoP = C x A where "C" = the Confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the Percent of the Area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.<br /><br />A “30-percent PoP” could be calculated one of two ways, as per these examples:<br /><br />1) There is 100-percent confidence that precipitation will occur, but only 30-percent of the area will get it. (PoP= 1 x .30 = .30 or 30-percent chance).<br /><br />2) There is only 30-percent confidence that precipitation will occur, but if it does occur, it will produce precipitation over 100-percent of the area. (PoP = .30 x 1 = .30 or 30-percent).<br /><br />Either way, you should interpret a 30-percent chance to mean: there is a 30-percent chance precipitation (or thunderstorms) will occur at any given point within the forecast area.<br /><br />You could also interpret that to mean that there is a 70-percent chance there won’t be any precipitation (or thunderstorms) where you are.<br /><br /><b>Using the Forecast</b><br /><br />Nowadays, computer models generate the POP’s and chances for thunderstorms. In some cases, the local forecaster’s experience will get factored into the equation, as well. <br /><br />What you should look for in the forecast before heading out the door for the day is how certain or uncertain the forecast sounds to you. In other words, if the POP or thunderstorm probability is quite high, 70-percent or greater, that means the computer model, and/or the forecaster is highly certain about what will happen during the forecast time period, and the odds are good that the forecasted weather will materialize. <br /><br />“Slight chance”, “Chance”, “Possible”, or “Likely” are all uncertain descriptive terms that can be used interchangeably for the percent probability in the text of the forecast. (See the table).<br /><br />If no uncertain terms or probability numbers are used, then certainty is high, such as, “Thunderstorms today”, or “Showers this afternoon”. Take that to mean the probability of occurrence is greater than 80 percent.<br /><br /><b>Final Check</b><br /><br />Arm yourself with the latest weather forecast before you launch on your next outdoor adventure this summer, then keep an eye on the sky to see how well those probabilities are panning out, I guarantee it will be different everyday. Precipitation or thunderstorms can happen when the POP is 20-percent, and they can miss you completely or never materialize when the POP is 70-percent. <br /><br />Especially in the mountains, I would treat any mention of showers or thunderstorms in the forecast to mean, “be-on-the-lookout” that day. The higher the percentage, the more likely you will get wet, but I still carry my raincoat on a 20-percent PoP day.<br /><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Probability of Precipitation (POP)</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Probability Value</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">“Uncertain” Term </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="176">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">10 to 20 %</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 153.0pt;" valign="top" width="153">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Slight Chance</span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="176">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">30 % to 50 %</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Chance</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">60 % to 70 %</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Possible or Likely</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">80 % to 100 %</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">(usually no term used, </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">certainty is high)</span></div>
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<br /><br />Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years.<br />
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<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-88137414103554608362014-07-22T09:30:00.000-06:002014-07-31T08:33:40.366-06:00How to keep from getting Zapped in a Thunderstorm<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
(Note: This is re-posted here from the original article that appeared in <i>Jackson Hole News & Guide </i>Mountain Weather column on July 9, 2014.)<br />
<br />
In my last Mountain Weather column (June 25) I gave you a few facts and statistics about lightning related incidents, both nationally and locally. This week I will give you some more practical knowledge about thunderstorms and lightning, and what to do if you find yourself outdoors during a dangerous thunderstorm. <br />
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The first thing you need to do is follow the weather forecast, every day, to see what the chances are for thunderstorms. Have some idea if thunderstorms are going to be a threat, and get the latest updated forecast, before you head out the door. <br />
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Once out the door, keep an eye on the sky and see how the clouds are developing as the day progresses. If they are growing taller, and the bases of the clouds are getting darker, then thunderstorms and their accompanying lightning may be imminent. Remember: what you observe always trumps what the forecast said!<br />
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When to Hide<br />
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As soon as you can hear the thunder, lightning is close enough to strike, and it is time to seek shelter. Lightning can be seen from about 15 miles away, and thunder can be heard up to about 10 miles away, on a good day. In a canyon, or out in the wind, it may not be heard until much closer.<br />
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You can estimate how far away the lightning is by counting the seconds between when you see the flash of lightning and when you hear the thunder. Count in seconds (one-thousand-one, one-thousand two, etc.). Five seconds equals one mile. If you count to 25, that means the lightning is 5 miles away, which is actually close enough to be able to reach out and kill you.<br />
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Don’t wait for it to start raining before you think about seeking shelter, or for the first bolt to hit nearby, as most people tend to do.<br />
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Where to Hide<br />
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If you can get to a building, or a car, that is the safest place to be. Picnic shelters, a gazebo, a dugout at the ball field, are NOT good shelters from lightning. Your car is, not because the tires insulate, but because the frame and body take all the electrical current and disperses it. Get in the car, don’t touch the doorframe, and wait it out.<br />
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If you find yourself stuck outside, far from the car or a building, don’t run underneath the biggest, loneliest looking tree for shelter. A better option is to get into a stand of trees of similar height, and make sure you are not standing on top of any tree roots. If all else fails, get into a low spot in the terrain, that is not a watercourse, and crouch down.<br />
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If you are in the mountains, get down off the higher ridgetops, get into a gully or low spot between ridges, but don’t sit in a gully that might become a running watercourse. Also, DO NOT get under an overhanging rock or in a cave. Electricity will often jump the gap that you are sitting or standing in when lightning strikes nearby.<br />
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If you are on a lake or river, get out of the water, and off the boat. Water is a great conductor of electricity! Get to shore and find a stand of similar sized trees to wait it out.<br />
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How to Hide<br />
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The absolute best thing you can do to prevent injuries from lightning striking nearby is: KEEP YOUR FEET TOGETHER. <br />
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Keeping your feet together will help prevent dangerous ground currents from running up through one leg and exiting down the other. You may feel a bump under your feet as the ground current passes, if both feet are together, but it is unlikely that you would receive a serious electrical injury. Your other option is to sit on the ground with your legs crossed, Indian-style.<br />
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This is why lightning, due to the difference in voltage of the ground current between each leg, frequently kills cows and sheep. They don’t have the ability, or the sense, to put all four of their feet together. <br />
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Also, get away from any metal objects, or empty your pack of any metal. You might want to also take off any metal jewelry.<br />
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Lastly, don’t huddle together in a group, as cows and sheep also tend to do during thunderstorms. Spread out, at least 25-feet feet apart, 50 feet of separation from your companions is even better.<br />
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A lightning strike has about the same kill-casualty radius as a standard Army-issue hand grenade. Either one can kill you and everyone that is within a 25-foot radius of the explosive, and injure you or everyone out to a 50-foot radius. <br />
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You should stay in a safe location or position for at least 20 to 30 minutes after the last lightning bolt strikes, to make sure the thunderstorm is a safe distance away. That’s another thing that is hard to get people to do. We usually come back out to play way too soon.<br />
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TIMING LIGHTNING to THUNDER<br />
Lightning travels at the speed of light, which is faster than the speed of sound that Thunder travels. Therefore, lightning is seen before the thunder is heard. You can time how far away the lightning is by counting, in seconds (one-thousand-one, one-thousand-two, etc.), From the time you see the flash, until the time you hear the thunder.<br />
Take the number of seconds and divide by 5 to calculate the distance the lightning is from you in miles. Seconds Counted / 5 Seconds per mile = Number of Miles Away.<br />
25 seconds = 5 miles away. 5 seconds = one mile away. 1 second = less than a quarter mile away.<br />
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20/20 Lightning Rule<br />
If the time between the lightning flash and the thunder is 20 seconds or less, then the lightning bolt was less than 5 miles from your location. It is time to seek shelter IMMEDIATELY!<br />
After the last lightning bolt is seen, give it at least 20 minutes until you return to any exposed area. ( A “30/30” Rule is even safer!)<br />
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Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years.Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-27265315456604678402014-07-15T11:47:00.000-06:002014-07-31T08:34:35.603-06:00Thunderstorms and Cool Clouds from July 14, 2014<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Monday afternoon and evening provided some great visuals in the sky, with clouds, lightning, and some cool colors around the Jackson Hole area.<br /> Below is a selection of the great photos various weather fans sent in. <br />As I receive more, I will add them onto this blog post.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Thanks to all those who made a submission, and I will also try and rotate some of these onto the mountainweaher.com Homepage this next week. I was hard to pick just one favorite!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I ordered them by time of day to give you a feeling of the sequence of the day as storms rolled through in several waves between around 2:00 pm and 9:00 pm on July 14, 2014.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Other notes from Monday's Thunderstorms:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lots of lightning, both in-cloud & ground strikes. "Marble" or "grape" sized hail was reported on the Teton Village Road and in Rafter-J south of town. </span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglDU9Iq_NzrLXRxc7gtllkWbL69IB3aEMKkmV-hhbp1OSZ7ophCjo7G8yB8UI4wwen2XkSTb_WX9DhOzQKOr8QLjgXiS4DZSbpwIFUmmMGX7bCwRgcWNblVShKdqsuZvyFDdTt1ac2sQ_x/s1600/lightning-strikes.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglDU9Iq_NzrLXRxc7gtllkWbL69IB3aEMKkmV-hhbp1OSZ7ophCjo7G8yB8UI4wwen2XkSTb_WX9DhOzQKOr8QLjgXiS4DZSbpwIFUmmMGX7bCwRgcWNblVShKdqsuZvyFDdTt1ac2sQ_x/s1600/lightning-strikes.gif" height="640" width="360" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lightning Strike map from Monday Evening's T-storms</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span><br />
<br />Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-38107280891810464842014-05-24T10:10:00.005-06:002014-07-31T08:35:16.126-06:00What makes the wind blow?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tmeMYK7sn3oaLWZB7vhPAn-70btyBMjJPfSiPRXYQxSE0X1zEzc5skS_u8_9Ve9GQpGURQHc_RI7_vmAvgke8G9K_0AuSzSrf4-7TdjCLle8ygPAUeteviecVwO49n6pSIFeGR0yDniS/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(Article re-printed from the Mountain Weather Column in the <i>Jackson Hole News and Guide</i>, May 14, 2014)</span><br />
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--</style><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Spring is
the time of year that we can experience an increase in the wind around western
Wyoming, even here in the relatively wind-protected Jackson Hole Valley.
Usually when the wind picks up around here, I am asked one of two questions,
either, “When is it going to stop?” or “Why is it so windy?”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Answering
the first question correctly depends on how good a forecast I did that day.
Answering the second question usually requires a lengthier and more technical
explanation.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In this
week’s column, I will give you that more technical explanation, to save us both
some time when I see you on the street on the next “windy” day. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The Wind
Blows</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Bob Dylan
says, “You don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”. I
say to Bob, “But, it doesn’t hurt!”</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Wind is a
rather elusive meteorological variable, especially since we can’t really see
it, like we can clouds or precipitation. Wind, during a storm, is something we
expect. Wind can be an unpleasant nuisance though, especially on a bluebird
day, to cyclists, sailors, paragliders, climbers, etc. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
atmosphere is constantly adjusting itself, trying to balance the changes in
temperature and humidity from one part of the planet to the other. This leads
to different areas of high and low pressure that encircle the globe, and the
bigger the difference in temperature, and/or humidity, from one area to another,
the bigger the difference in pressure, and the faster the wind blows.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">That’s what
gets it started in motion, always moving from high pressure towards lower
pressure. Friction at the surface, mountains, buildings, etc. can slow the wind
down and alter its direction. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the wind
starts moving from high to low, but it gets re-routed, and turned to the right
in the northern hemisphere, because the earth is rotating. This is known as the
Coriolis Effect.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">When we
observe stronger winds, it means that there is a big difference in pressure
across the region, or sometimes across the entire country. A big low-pressure
center over the mid-western U.S. and a big area of high-pressure along the West
Coast, for instance, could result in strong winds in-between, over the Rockies.
</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">That
difference in pressure from Point-A to Point-B is known as a pressure-gradient.
A strong pressure-gradient equals strong winds. You can track that each day by
looking at a surface weather map, and look for big highs and big lows, and lots
of pressure contour lines in-between, as well. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The other
thing that can cause strong winds at the surface is when the jet stream is
directly overhead.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The Jet
Stream</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">The jet
stream lives up at around 30,000-ft. in the atmosphere, up where jets fly. It
is defined as the region of the atmosphere where the fastest winds are
occurring. The jet stream is also a dividing line, of sorts, between the
coldest air to the north, and warmest air to the south. And once again,
wherever there is a big difference in temperature across a region of the world,
there will be a big difference in pressure, and thus faster wind speeds.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In the
springtime, the jet stream is trying to migrate from a more southern position
to a more northern position, following the line between the warmest and coldest
air, which is changing rapidly with the tilt of the earth, the angle of the
sun, and increased solar radiation over the northern Hemisphere. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Whenever
that jet is directly overhead, it has the potential to translate down to the
surface and give us a little more wind down here at the surface.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">You can
track when the winds will be decreasing by following the progression of the jet
stream, and when it is moving away from your location.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Find
current, and forecasted, surface maps and jet stream maps here:<br /><a href="http://www.mountainweather.com/index.php?page=usa_forecast" target="_blank"><b>USA Forecast Maps</b></a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Jim is the
chief meteorologist at </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">mountainweather.com </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">and has been forecasting the weather
in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for over 20 years.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<td colspan="2" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.15in;" valign="top" width="443"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Weather Map Examples of Northerly Wind over Rockies</span></b></span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 221.4pt;" valign="top" width="221"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGGKnAlBPGsveyCMyq-AvA7gMaed3r41a2xPKWv0tK7mibUZdD1BmYt9maUbwOx2uHpxyhl9TdAiTDq1b5A1QOG-w39qP5qDEDuKM0yynsdQcjcXqKuHmM5ZYmjcpCDAMRL1WRc50pLlxX/s1600/sfc+map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGGKnAlBPGsveyCMyq-AvA7gMaed3r41a2xPKWv0tK7mibUZdD1BmYt9maUbwOx2uHpxyhl9TdAiTDq1b5A1QOG-w39qP5qDEDuKM0yynsdQcjcXqKuHmM5ZYmjcpCDAMRL1WRc50pLlxX/s1600/sfc+map.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 9.0pt;">Source:
MeteoStar</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 221.4pt;" valign="top" width="221"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMXnYEphYwhwoHs_7rhu50xMBGvUdAxyecC3XrpOpm_QjnksyX9PDunHZ-E19jfSEw4VocCvAg4X2iuLQSVZlLvQrs13KacZmF7ge6IoRLTT1PnUtFyQticPP29p8WoS8E3qCOjlVlhoJ-/s1600/jet+map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMXnYEphYwhwoHs_7rhu50xMBGvUdAxyecC3XrpOpm_QjnksyX9PDunHZ-E19jfSEw4VocCvAg4X2iuLQSVZlLvQrs13KacZmF7ge6IoRLTT1PnUtFyQticPP29p8WoS8E3qCOjlVlhoJ-/s1600/jet+map.jpg" height="291" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 9.0pt;">Source: NCAR</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></div>
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<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 221.4pt;" valign="top" width="221"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Surface Map </span></b></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 221.4pt;" valign="top" width="221"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial;">Jet Stream Map</span></b></div>
</td>
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Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-57457440018688883982014-03-18T08:28:00.000-06:002014-03-18T08:28:00.765-06:00St. Patty's Day Storm<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5JqN3UVtu7nwXoLkzY8HlC2-VxMwh5lE4zhqgo2awKfZbzFKP2nJIxog9Tg51pd6cB0IONpOMUvXtbYfKqrqmNrkbqoHXq2voQCPKCIdqP4WWsXAd1UFNQGHTIOOkE2BpVtfscf6I4A0/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5JqN3UVtu7nwXoLkzY8HlC2-VxMwh5lE4zhqgo2awKfZbzFKP2nJIxog9Tg51pd6cB0IONpOMUvXtbYfKqrqmNrkbqoHXq2voQCPKCIdqP4WWsXAd1UFNQGHTIOOkE2BpVtfscf6I4A0/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" height="200" width="122" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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The storm that hit Jackson Hole Monday afternoon, on Saint Patrick's Day, dumped 3 to 6 inches of snow around the valley. A total of 10 to 16 inches of new snow in the mountains, was reported at Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee Tuesday morning, from the previous 24-hours. Most of that snow fell between Noon and 6:00 pm on St. Patty's Day.<br /><br />Winds were strong, as well, with gusts of 49 mph at the Jackson Hole Airport and 75 mph at the top of the Tram.<br /><br />A pretty good snow & blow for late March. Spring Season begins on Thursday!<br />
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Some weather maps below from yesterday afternoon & evening. <br />And the Snowcover Map for USA.....western Wyoming looking the fattest of anywhere.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYSbNbVoV_iUWkIJ1gfsbdzXwetjFnJAUr0rHzABq1eO1SUl1LpE7to9FFRYdpdUbfnNTFDdb7FC0thMDOErfjaYge42urcCfdeZO-ZbtFAS1V2Hs18ifB9HmV49cx4QgS8CHmVoWbpLpp/s1600/896996516.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYSbNbVoV_iUWkIJ1gfsbdzXwetjFnJAUr0rHzABq1eO1SUl1LpE7to9FFRYdpdUbfnNTFDdb7FC0thMDOErfjaYge42urcCfdeZO-ZbtFAS1V2Hs18ifB9HmV49cx4QgS8CHmVoWbpLpp/s1600/896996516.png" height="478" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surface Map from Monday Afternoon. Courtesy of MeteoStar.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3bdSBDHUfZ3exHvZeoHeF4SzIRCtK1r6B3ffm4Q7ZsB9W1m6IbTcMsMX96LBGzElwIZpbuhnSWF-bUsJyl3pC3bVpRK2BPQXVZcQvvz4KeU04M8M8yqh9jRmaUMva49rjMp_0VD-1SeOL/s1600/896575068.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3bdSBDHUfZ3exHvZeoHeF4SzIRCtK1r6B3ffm4Q7ZsB9W1m6IbTcMsMX96LBGzElwIZpbuhnSWF-bUsJyl3pC3bVpRK2BPQXVZcQvvz4KeU04M8M8yqh9jRmaUMva49rjMp_0VD-1SeOL/s1600/896575068.png" height="478" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jet Stream Monday morning. Courtesy of MeteoStar.</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3nrJGRuCBRIKxF97sgeiLOSsVvqT8yRTfSlrqZ3RY_exDt_a9h4kG0o05iX0nG2sumd-9hKk55FCgq37rew18NUC7Bo4VpR6qGAJqJhHJBAIpqrPiYWonrsakrQY1kg88sLaSGB4PFCXy/s1600/pih+rad.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3nrJGRuCBRIKxF97sgeiLOSsVvqT8yRTfSlrqZ3RY_exDt_a9h4kG0o05iX0nG2sumd-9hKk55FCgq37rew18NUC7Bo4VpR6qGAJqJhHJBAIpqrPiYWonrsakrQY1kg88sLaSGB4PFCXy/s1600/pih+rad.png" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pocatello Radar Monday @ 2pm MDT</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMdhzL7hymj6SEgvQvqaLpEXGUYYsMSE3oU82V0x6Q4CXzvWcMMU0qphfgjUor6kx5LbE9rozf9QP8an4ontYs41wEeYEgjwNd2p9kB4HTklGPnYc_IDhd1cwCMwBu94P3OHVlcdDii67F/s1600/nsm_depth_2014031805_National.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMdhzL7hymj6SEgvQvqaLpEXGUYYsMSE3oU82V0x6Q4CXzvWcMMU0qphfgjUor6kx5LbE9rozf9QP8an4ontYs41wEeYEgjwNd2p9kB4HTklGPnYc_IDhd1cwCMwBu94P3OHVlcdDii67F/s1600/nsm_depth_2014031805_National.jpg" height="364" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Snowcover Map as of Tuesday March 18, 2014</td></tr>
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Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey<br />
Maps from MeteoStar LEADS On-Line<br />
& NOAA/NWSJim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-27842293994217675802014-03-05T09:01:00.002-07:002014-03-05T09:07:35.128-07:00A Rare "Thundersnow" Event in Jackson Hole<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihsYAt_oY4mL62qXe0N4rY-xhehBgwVRPf8pHSaK-F-zAdAG29rtgZxSRbF7m85WXKQriTABw9pDKnjVORlD3OhguamMXtSRXqOd_gIGX7GHFszsmSE5_1Cdr5UVrOEmInL8dkGMtWv98k/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihsYAt_oY4mL62qXe0N4rY-xhehBgwVRPf8pHSaK-F-zAdAG29rtgZxSRbF7m85WXKQriTABw9pDKnjVORlD3OhguamMXtSRXqOd_gIGX7GHFszsmSE5_1Cdr5UVrOEmInL8dkGMtWv98k/s1600/Jim+W+blog+pic.jpg" height="200" width="121" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">There was a
"Thundersnow" event that occurred over the Jackson Hole area Tuesday
evening, March 4th, 2014. A small, but very potent upper level
disturbance passed through, concentrating a brief but intense period of
snowfall right over Teton County Idaho & Teton County Wyoming
between 5:00 and 8:00 pm MST.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Thundersnow is a rare occurrence, but basically it is a summer-like thunderstorm with winter-like snow in it, and yes, there was lightning in it. In 2 or 3 hours this storm produce between 3 and 5 inches of snow around Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains. <br /><br />To produce a thundersnow-storm, a very unstable atmosphere is required, we had that as temps in the valleys were up around 40 degrees or warmer Tuesday afternoon, and the much colder air aloft associated with that Trof created the needed instability in the atmosphere. The timing of the clashing of the warmer air down low and the colder air aloft could not have been better. And, there was a nice impulse of moisture to go with it. <br /><br />In this case, in order to generate lightning in the winter months, the mountains provided the extra lift required to develop that thunderstorm last evening. As the cell dispensed it's precip, temperatures </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">in the valley dropped to 30-degrees almost instantly.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />Lightning Map below, with satellite & radar images from around the time of greatest intensity.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRCovwf0Z-4Fg2bdpr8E7mu7oBNNFqzgiOw2GTRlxHK0OFBdxSzrUZloL8YshLc3J-ChTQTaUjKht7T_0fcnDDWmCGHfa4OO3wy5Uz8sMMoR5YnKgx7JxkCi8Jg2HhS0bfhiKuXTcggs9/s1600/TUES04MARLightning0z.gif" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRCovwf0Z-4Fg2bdpr8E7mu7oBNNFqzgiOw2GTRlxHK0OFBdxSzrUZloL8YshLc3J-ChTQTaUjKht7T_0fcnDDWmCGHfa4OO3wy5Uz8sMMoR5YnKgx7JxkCi8Jg2HhS0bfhiKuXTcggs9/s1600/TUES04MARLightning0z.gif" height="476" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lightning Strike Map from Tuesday evening</span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjokJEeM7K_ddHcNt9_o9FqVCZzwySZVX4uFf3SBmmfvK9YWe_XSviJsgUnWfe_orukCLvD3496-QtQlBXJAy5s18oStSaB00YXUVw4BiWL8ju3j19sDSLAQRImuclyD6zwfmw4EBtQNilO/s1600/TUES04MAR-IR2PIH.GIF.gif" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjokJEeM7K_ddHcNt9_o9FqVCZzwySZVX4uFf3SBmmfvK9YWe_XSviJsgUnWfe_orukCLvD3496-QtQlBXJAy5s18oStSaB00YXUVw4BiWL8ju3j19sDSLAQRImuclyD6zwfmw4EBtQNilO/s1600/TUES04MAR-IR2PIH.GIF.gif" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Infra-red Satellite Image </span></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQVgpzwPv82Yy1zSQYUkMxsEwrtZtgIlpOAAH957f8WdSmPwS1h5p5-8FIDcMV0ACaQVNg680C9Gr_f9Lzyr6n8_TakkYltO2C47ixJFBXwiQFyc_Y5rELT5wlADIQQZYbIkd2dyYZiLoJ/s1600/TUE04MARBase.gif" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQVgpzwPv82Yy1zSQYUkMxsEwrtZtgIlpOAAH957f8WdSmPwS1h5p5-8FIDcMV0ACaQVNg680C9Gr_f9Lzyr6n8_TakkYltO2C47ixJFBXwiQFyc_Y5rELT5wlADIQQZYbIkd2dyYZiLoJ/s1600/TUE04MARBase.gif" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Base Relectivity Radar Image</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">You can see how small this thundersnow cell was, relatively speaking. Because of its size, it is one of those weather events that is difficult to forecast for, at least very far in advance. There was virtually no indication that this storm would blossom like it did, until about an hour ahead of time. Small features like this totally slips through the cracks in the computer models. <br /><br />There was very little indication on anything I looked at early on Tuesday morning to suggest there would even still be any precipitation by evening Tuesday.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Post by Jim Woodmencey, meteorologist</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lightning Map & Radar graphic from Leads On-line</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and Satellite image from NOAA </span>Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-44574663849970027572014-02-25T05:32:00.001-07:002014-02-25T06:01:11.294-07:00Stationary Front Divides the Warm from the Cold<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOZJ9ri4cTtYgAPD5bAY9kk3AWR4raSwgxL00QjVBw05tgdmBVdbgHgmaerYu_KuGUY2Y58pnCRYhFA0WnXIRW4OrtOc0a4B2Pf7LCJVuQE8yNnR3Dk9xL1X6XBbMKF9I046Z1-ak2RJW/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOZJ9ri4cTtYgAPD5bAY9kk3AWR4raSwgxL00QjVBw05tgdmBVdbgHgmaerYu_KuGUY2Y58pnCRYhFA0WnXIRW4OrtOc0a4B2Pf7LCJVuQE8yNnR3Dk9xL1X6XBbMKF9I046Z1-ak2RJW/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" height="200" width="122" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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It can be a game of inches sometimes on the weather map. A stationary front that lies across central Idaho and Northwest Wyoming is separating cold air to the north of that line from warmer air to the south of that line.<br />
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This morning (Tuesday Feb. 25), temperatures in Southwest Montana are between 6 and 12 degrees, north of that in Great Falls, MT it is 9 below zero!<br />
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Temperatures in Southeast Idaho and Western Wyoming are between 35 and 40 degrees.<br />
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Snowing pretty heartily to the north of that line, from Dillon to Billings. Some rain showers at lower elevations to the south of that line, with some snow falling at higher elevations. Let's root for that line to shift back to the south a few inches today and bring Jackson Hole a little shot of snow!<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgizMJY2M9xOFaOgD7Bu39GXT_NfeTdMmB9cxEnK1yP9li_698BUj0BpJehOe7Strvnw6PmSEnEqcJZXNREpxcGhRTJ3pJhy2jAAaxO2xIg4aNnBoVYQd8_nK8uL7UZM_Ut5hwISs5OburL/s1600/radsfcus_exp_new.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgizMJY2M9xOFaOgD7Bu39GXT_NfeTdMmB9cxEnK1yP9li_698BUj0BpJehOe7Strvnw6PmSEnEqcJZXNREpxcGhRTJ3pJhy2jAAaxO2xIg4aNnBoVYQd8_nK8uL7UZM_Ut5hwISs5OburL/s1600/radsfcus_exp_new.gif" height="448" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surface Weather Map with Fronts & Radar. Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 3:00 am MST</td></tr>
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Further south of that stationary front, it is just warm and dry across California, Nevada, Utah, and western Colorado.<br />
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By the way, it was along that same stationary front that we saw copious amounts of snow in Jackson Hole/Tetons over the weekend, when we were on the colder side of that line.<br />
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Post by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey<br />
Map from NOAAJim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-76901605097437723662014-02-07T10:41:00.001-07:002014-02-07T10:46:04.657-07:00The Next Big Winter Storm for the West & Jackson Hole<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFW66VGWmeD_p_mf8hI3G8TRURTPIe-5w9UQkNCmWYYwub6CDo9uVAholB0STZhiYmtoMBxpUK5a-frxWRJ2El7IFB6LNtbvpJFSTHBHhqF6UNnkT-5nTFb6rwVM8gTQPESQc6H2YWULOJ/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFW66VGWmeD_p_mf8hI3G8TRURTPIe-5w9UQkNCmWYYwub6CDo9uVAholB0STZhiYmtoMBxpUK5a-frxWRJ2El7IFB6LNtbvpJFSTHBHhqF6UNnkT-5nTFb6rwVM8gTQPESQc6H2YWULOJ/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
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Another good storm cycle for a strip of the western United States, from Tahoe to the Tetons. And of course, the best powder will fall in western Wyoming's mountains this weekend, where temps and elevations are ideal.<br />
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Powerful Westerly Jet stream carries lots of Pacific moisture across California and the Sierras, unfortunately for that area the freezing levels will be rather high, and snow levels will rise through the weekend, with rain below about the 7,000-ft. elevation, in general. But heavy snow above that elevation, measured in feet! Like 3 or 4 or more! Be happy for the water down there, I guess, which will exceed 4 inches from this cycle through the weekend.<br />
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Over the Intermountain West, Idaho, western and central mountains do well, and the further north you get the lower the snow levels. In western Wyoming, a couple of feet of snow accumulation is possible over the weekend for Teton Mountains and a foot in the Hole itself. Looks like another 1.50 to 2 inches of water will be added to the mountain snowpack.<br />
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The maps below show accumulated snowfall totals and water amounts for the period beginning Friday morning Feb. 7th through Monday morning Feb. 10th.<br />
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Satellite Photo shows connection of moisture from Hawaii to West Coast, another "Pineapple" connection.<br />
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Jet stream map shows position of jet across North America on Saturday morning. Te core of that jet that will be right over Idaho and Wyoming at 35,000-ft. will have wind speeds of 170 to almost 200 mph, according to this models prediction. Strongest jet we've seen this winter.<br />
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February is starting to look really good, with a good scenario for
producing snow for the coming weekend and through the end of next week.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIag58cN6DnS-grUVM-0mBwfrGx944AgXKDipxC6E5qLkSb57U7OEB6B-BnLjtidWO1cQ4yVawigBTbwhBvfzBqNB1ZECUo5yAFTBIuR0Mam1I4hNkEAS-JyXtKNUAdJmDyDUK2Z7XeygJ/s1600/IR16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIag58cN6DnS-grUVM-0mBwfrGx944AgXKDipxC6E5qLkSb57U7OEB6B-BnLjtidWO1cQ4yVawigBTbwhBvfzBqNB1ZECUo5yAFTBIuR0Mam1I4hNkEAS-JyXtKNUAdJmDyDUK2Z7XeygJ/s1600/IR16.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite Friday morning, white line traces the "pineapple" connection of moisture all the way to Hawaii</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaQZvfrVthgFumopFfiuPUE9p7dqXWD0xAOKUsoSoXlBagZgI9wLcQIs2o04bZxdmL_4-nl_nROUfM44k6IIbCZZmz8L3R_BS14sos8E6Cw4fkPuaHcbWEII-mFpD1SxqwxzCnkUZGE1Ze/s1600/GFS+NA+jet.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaQZvfrVthgFumopFfiuPUE9p7dqXWD0xAOKUsoSoXlBagZgI9wLcQIs2o04bZxdmL_4-nl_nROUfM44k6IIbCZZmz8L3R_BS14sos8E6Cw4fkPuaHcbWEII-mFpD1SxqwxzCnkUZGE1Ze/s1600/GFS+NA+jet.gif" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jet stream forecast position at Noon MST on Saturday, red zone is over 150 knots 170 mph).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMCzTRbbU1wJ2RM4rK8RUo-xUDJYV3cSFJaYkNOIEsjMN9QLGnoydpJIlDm2Ql8kCMLlRjefd0Vc5rXzycyW95GPTy0h4bC8tiGPKpPeLmNs9hRp53OBZZPUcCANN7qsl5xeyUSxJmcbix/s1600/FEB14-SnowWestUS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMCzTRbbU1wJ2RM4rK8RUo-xUDJYV3cSFJaYkNOIEsjMN9QLGnoydpJIlDm2Ql8kCMLlRjefd0Vc5rXzycyW95GPTy0h4bC8tiGPKpPeLmNs9hRp53OBZZPUcCANN7qsl5xeyUSxJmcbix/s1600/FEB14-SnowWestUS.jpg" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast Total Snow Accumulations, Friday morning thru Monday morning. In the "pink is approaching 2 feet.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCyx2ZKRIGalvEcWF9KEAWydqSA54AamJ6Lj9C3JPND1OzQZcL-_Km_T3rS5lgDQHfUB0KHz-TEkRQMkRGvY7oVtkd2f_JskpO1ZZop502jOnKRARJpbifQ0B99a_JdHXw1YRdQohrqKZB/s1600/Feb14Water-WestUS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCyx2ZKRIGalvEcWF9KEAWydqSA54AamJ6Lj9C3JPND1OzQZcL-_Km_T3rS5lgDQHfUB0KHz-TEkRQMkRGvY7oVtkd2f_JskpO1ZZop502jOnKRARJpbifQ0B99a_JdHXw1YRdQohrqKZB/s1600/Feb14Water-WestUS.jpg" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecasted Water Amounts for same time period.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIj_r9my41xJdnJPfp-qKwsLnsGiThN6gtwOsfEIMrjA-MYoucfBjfX7GB_4l0EHTHMgVb6gnuvEAc0lwliaA3Nnhkb7XNxXpdz7kfDnA4kobPHObXIMXb__sIO4T_JT3ICDggS2KnZ6R4/s1600/WY-Snow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIj_r9my41xJdnJPfp-qKwsLnsGiThN6gtwOsfEIMrjA-MYoucfBjfX7GB_4l0EHTHMgVb6gnuvEAc0lwliaA3Nnhkb7XNxXpdz7kfDnA4kobPHObXIMXb__sIO4T_JT3ICDggS2KnZ6R4/s1600/WY-Snow.jpg" height="640" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Zoomed in to snow accumulations for ID-NV-UT-Western WY</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2301091391220074534.post-77611980090071359282014-01-29T07:52:00.003-07:002014-01-29T08:08:56.178-07:00Winter Storm Warning...and other Weather Alerts<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQ_5nNdG7JPRuY1RHnYcBbI7Gi-abAE5l4zoC_dYW3VwbKE6lk52Xbi_qhftoY8igvNHT0x0RKAvdiPbSH1EjWXWI1s4d5tVdKQg1-M-Bdpe2tDs30-Y4EhHUXYgF-LK__8OZUSGVwLkC/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKQ_5nNdG7JPRuY1RHnYcBbI7Gi-abAE5l4zoC_dYW3VwbKE6lk52Xbi_qhftoY8igvNHT0x0RKAvdiPbSH1EjWXWI1s4d5tVdKQg1-M-Bdpe2tDs30-Y4EhHUXYgF-LK__8OZUSGVwLkC/s1600/Jim+W+mug+for+blog.jpg" height="200" width="122" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />Good timing on the weather! <br />In last week's Jackson Hole News & Guide I primed you with an article about NWS </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><b>Winter Weather Advisories, Watches,
and Warnings</b>….what they mean to you.</span>......and here we go, with a "Winter Storm Warning" for Jackson Hole issued Wednesday mroning, which was upgraded from a "Watch" that was issued on Tuesday morning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"><b><br /><br /><br />Mountain Weather Column<br />Jackson Hole News & Guide<br />January 22, 2014 Issue</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">During the
course of the winter season we will see a number of different weather alerts
issued by the National Weather Service Office in Riverton, which is responsible
for issuing weather warnings for all of western Wyoming. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">In this
week’s column I will delineate for you the different types of Advisories,
Watches, and Warnings you may come across during the winter season, what the
criteria is for issuing them, and what they really mean to you.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Advisories </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"> </span>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The National Weather Service will issue Winter Weather
“Advisories” to alert the public to weather situations that may present a
hazard, but do not meet the “Warning” category criteria. “Advisories” are for
weather that may cause significant inconvenience or difficulty to travelers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">The earliest type of advisory you may see is a “Hazardous
Weather Outlook”, which may be issued several days ahead of time if a large storm
system is expected, which might affect travel. Other wintertime advisories and
their criteria are listed below.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Winter Weather Advisory:</b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b>Most commonly issued for snow events or when
a combination of precipitation is expected; such as: snow, sleet, freezing rain,
or blowing snow, is in the forecast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>A Snow Advisory </b>would be a more specific type of Winter
Weather Advisory that would be issued when snowfall is expected to be between 3
and 6 inches in 24 hours in valley locations. Mountain locations have snow
advisories issued when between 6 and12 inches of accumulation is expected in 24
hours.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Blowing Snow Advisory:</b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">
</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Issued when wind-driven snow intermittently
reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less. Travel may be hampered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Strong winds can create blowing snow by
picking up old or new snow.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Other winter advisories you might see are: Wind-Chill Advisory
(-20F) or a Dense Fog Advisory (¼ mile visibility). </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Watches
and Warnings</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">“Watches” and “Warnings” are more serious than “Advisories”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">A “Watch” is issued when conditions are favorable for the
development of a particular weather event that meets certain threshold criteria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A “Warning” is issued when a particular severe
weather condition is imminent or actually occurring. “Watches” & “Warnings”
are usually reserved for weather situations that will make travel impossible, or
could pose a threat to life and property.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Note: Be aware that the criteria used for Advisories and
Warnings is different for different locations across the country. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">“Watches” are intended to provide enough lead-time so that
people can adjust their schedules. “Watches” may be issued up to 48 hours in advance
of the event and generally will precede a “Warning”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">When a Watch is upgraded to a Warning, you should take it
very seriously. Listed below are the most common Warnings you may see issued in
western Wyoming. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Winter Storm Warning:</b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">
</b>Issued when heavy snow and/or strong wind are possible. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow:</b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>Issued when snowfall is expected to exceed 6 inches per event in
the valley. For mountain locations it is 12 inches or more per event. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;"><b>Blizzard Warning:</b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b>Strong
winds of 35 mph or greater, cold temperatures, and considerable falling and/or
blowing snow that frequently drops visibility to ¼ mile or less. And these
conditions are expected to last for 3 hours or longer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Other Warnings might include: Wind-Chill Warning (-30F) or
an Avalanche Warning (High to Extreme Avalanche danger rating).</span></div>
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
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<td colspan="3" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 32.85pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 337.95pt;" valign="top" width="338"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Winter Weather Advisory &
Warning Criteria </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">
for Heavy Snow in Western Wyoming</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Per Event or Time
Period</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;"></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 11.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.6pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.65pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Advisory</span></b></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Warning</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 11.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.6pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Valley</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.65pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">3 to 6 inches</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">6 inches or more</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 11.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.6pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Mountains</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.65pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">5 to 12 inches</span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">12 inches or more</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 11.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="3" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 11.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 337.95pt;" valign="top" width="338"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">From NWS Central Region </span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">While a "Winter Storm Warning" may not necessarily
translate to copious powder for skiers, it should at least mean that we are in
for some nasty weather involving snow, wind, bad visibility, and sporty driving
conditions. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Blizzard, Winter storm, and Avalanche Warnings are serious
enough to be sent out on the Emergency Alert System (EAS), and if you subscribe
to NIXLE alerts, you should see them show up there, as well.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">On the
MountainWeather.com website on the Jackson Hole Forecast page, a flashing box
will appear at the top of that page above the forecast content whenever the
National Weather Service in Riverton has issued any sort of weather alert
specifically for Teton County. Read these carefully, and don’t just assume the
flashing box means a big dump is on the way!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Post by Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12.0pt;">Republished with permission from JH N&G </span></div>
Jim Woodmenceyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03469737165283368188noreply@blogger.com0