Monday, September 14, 2015

The Early Winter Outlook



Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey
It seems like weather predictions for the coming winter are beginning earlier and earlier every year. They used to come out in early October, then it was September, now they are appearing in mid-August.

The early release of the Old Farmer’s Almanac hit the major media a couple weeks ago. You can buy it in stores beginning this week. Or, if you have to write a column about it, like me, you could buy the pre-release digital copy.

It seems odd to me to be previewing the winter, when I haven’t even had the chance to review the summer. After all, fall doesn’t officially begin for another three weeks. But, here we go!


Outlooks Galore

The various Farmer’s Almanacs are just one way to get a leg-up on what the winter might be like. The Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA and the National Weather Service is another source.

El Nino has dominated the weather limelight this summer, and certainly the current and predicted state of the El Nino weighs heavily in the long-range outlooks for this winter. You can get updated on what I wrote recently about El Nino by searching the archives on the JH News and Guide website, or on my mountainweather blog page.

The short story is, it looks like the current El Nino will continue through the winter and early spring. NOAA expects it to become stronger and peak in November or December.  Previous strong El Nino events have brought above average snowfall to the Sierras and the Southwest United States.


NOAA-CPC

I analyzed all of the long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the winter months, broken down into three overlapping three-month categories, namely: November-December-January, December-January-February, and January-February-March. I also compared what is known as their “Three-Class” version and their new experimental, and as yet “unofficial”, “Two-Class” version of these outlooks. I like the new 2-class version, because it is simpler and less ambiguous than the 3-class version.

Basically, the 2-class version establishes what is “normal”, or average, by using historic weather data from 1981-2010. They pick out the coldest and the driest 15 years, and the warmest and the wettest 15 years.  From there, forecasters then estimate which regions of the country they believe will be well above or below these averages and assign probabilities.

For instance, a 60-percent probability that it will be warmer than normal, means there is a 40-percent probability temperatures could be below normal. If they are unsure, then it is a coin-flip, 50/50 chances of being above or below, or what they call EC “Equal Chances”.

Suffice it to say; no matter how you slice it, all versions of the CPC outlooks are bleak for the Northern Rockies. The overall picture they are painting for our area is for warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation from November through March. However, the probabilities of that happening are generally around 60-percent. Doesn’t that give us a 40-percent chance of it going the other way, colder and snowier? Think positive!

Farmer’s

When I opened up my digital version of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the familiar yellow-jacketed almanac you’ll see in Stone Drug or in your favorite grocery store this week, I found that it doesn’t do us any favors either. Their big color map of the U.S. has all of Idaho, Utah, western Montana, western Wyoming and western Colorado categorized as, “Mild and Dry”.

This almanac’s forecast has the Cascades of Washington, Oregon, and northern California under, “Cold and Snowy”. Should I pack my bags for Mt Baker or Mt. Hood? Not so fast.

In the 2016 edition of the Farmer’s Almanac, the orange and green-jacketed almanac, they are calling for, “Very Snowy and Typical Winter Cold” for Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Bingo! Let’s run with that forecast, it sounds so much better than the doom and gloom of all the others.

Caveat Emptor

Buyer beware! These are long-range outlooks, which I would liken to reading a fairy tale. Good or bad, it does not necessarily mean the predictions will come true.

Computer models generate much of what goes into these forecasts. I work with computer models everyday, and I can tell you that there are plenty of days that the models can’t get it right, for just 24-hours into the future. Naturally, I am a little skeptical of any model that predicts weather conditions 3 to 6 months into the future.

Take a deep breath, don’t worry, be happy, it will get cold this winter and it will snow. Some winters are better than others, and I would never write this one off before the first snowflake has even had a chance to fall.


NOAA Climate Prediction Center Three-Month Outlooks
Three-Month Period
Temperature
Precipitation
NOV-DEC-JAN
55% above
55% below
DEC-JAN-FEB
60% above
65% below
JAN-FEB-MAR
50% above
60% below
Probabilities from the new Experimental “Unofficial” Two-class Climate Outlooks


Jim is the chief meteorologist at mountainweather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for almost 25 years.

11 comments :

  1. Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart YES Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart Phonepe Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getflipkart bank cashback offersso

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getFlipkart bank offersso

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site flipkart cashback offersso

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here is the complete guide on how to use xmodgames
    download xmodgames

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nice blog & thanks for sharing it

    ReplyDelete

  5. Offersable - Cash Back Offers | Discount Coupons | Bank Offers | Promo Codes.
    Find best Discount Coupons, Cashback Offers, Hot Deals Bank Offers for
    all major e-commerce stores in the India



    Amazon cashback offers 2018Cashback Deals with sbi,hdfc,icici,axis banks,
    credit&debit card,
    Amazon Cashback Offers 2018 Upto 65% Cashback Deals, AMAZON CASHBACK OFFERS 2018,
    DISCOUNT COUPON OFFERS 2018, Amazon cashback offers with sbi hdfc icici axis banks credit&debit card offers more. amazon cashback offers2018,amazon india cashback,amazon offers on mobiles,
    amazon cashback2018,amazon offers 2018



    flipkart sbi offers, Flipkart Sbi Offer, SBI offers on Flipkart, Sbi offers in Flipkart, Sbi offer flipkart, Sbi discounts flipkart, FLipkart sbi discounts

    MyDealsAndCoupons,flipkart cashback offers,cashbackcoupons,flipkartcashbackoffers,cashbackoffer,cashbackofferscoupons,flipkarthdfcoffer,latestcashbackoffers,flipkartcreditcardoffers,dealsncashbackcashbackoffers

    cashbackcoupons

    Amazon cashback offers today, Amazon cashback offers, Amazon cashback offers on mobiles,
    amazon cashback offers today,amazon cashback offers,amazon cashback offer august,amazon citibank cash back offer,amazon cashback offer on hdfc credit card,amazon cashback offer on hdfc credit card,amazon cashback offer jio,amazon cashback offers on mobiles,amazon pay cashback offer today,amazon offers 10 cashback




    Flipkart HDFC Offer 2018 | Flipkart Offers Today | Flipkart Bank Offer

    Flipkart CashBack Offers - SBI, HDFC, ICICI, Citibank Cards,flipkart sbi debit card emi,flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles,flipkart credit card,flipkart cashback phonepe,flipkart credit card generator,flipkart cashback offer phonepe,flipkart american express,india fake debit card generator,flipkart american express gift card,sbi credit card offers on flipkart today,sbi flipkart offer,
    sbi debit card offers cash back,sbi flipkart offer 2018,,telugu bloggers ,telugu websites

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wonderful site and huge information. The information present here is helpful for the readers I'll come back to this blog for sure!



    Flipkart CashBack Offers-SBI, HDFC, ICICI, Citibank Cards&Flipkart HDFC Cards Offers"
    flipkart bank offers,flipkart cash back coupons,flipkart offers 2018,
    flipkart coupons 2018,flipkart cashback offers 2018,flipkart cashback offers,
    flipkart cash back offers,flipkart cashback coupons,
    flipkart cashback,Flipkart Cashback Offers,Flipkart Bank Offers,Flipkart Deals 2018,
    flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles,
    hdfc credit card offers on flipkart 2018 flipkart sbi offer big billion day,
    flipkart hdfc offer,
    flipkart hdfc offer august 2018 sbi flipkart offer 2018 flipkart icici offer



    FLIPKART CITIBANK OFFER,FLIPKART ICICI OFFER,
    SBI CARD OFFERS ON FLIPKART,
    FLIPKART CASHBACK OFFER TODAY,FLIPKART CREDIT CARD OFFERS,
    ALL BANK CREDIT CARD OFFERS,HDFC CREDIT CARD OFFERS ON FLIPKART,
    AXIS BANK CREDIT CARD OFFERS ON FLIPKART,
    CITIBANK CREDIT CARD OFFERS ON FLIPKART,SBI FLIPKART OFFER



    Flipkart Cashback Offers||Flipkart Bank Offers||Flipkart Deals 2018||flipkart upcoming offers,"
    "Flipkart Cashback Offers || Flipkart Bank Offers || Flipkart Deals 2018 ||"
    "flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles, hdfc credit card offers on flipkart 2018,
    sbi credit card offers on flipkart today, flipkart hdfc offer terms and conditions,
    sbi flipkart offer 2018,
    flipkart cashback phonepe, flipkart hdfc offer august 2018, flipkart icici offer




    "cashback,vouchers,coupons,discounts,offers,deals,promo codes,&Cashback Offers"
    "cash back coupons "Coupons, Discounts & Offers on 1500+ Shopping Sites in India.
    Get Extra Cashback Everytime You Shop Online using Coupons of Amazon, Flipkart,
    Tata CLiQ, Nykaa etc."cashback, vouchers, coupons, discounts, offers, deals,
    promo codes,Coupons, Promo Codes & Cashback Offers

    ReplyDelete
  7. I have read your article, it is very informative and helpful for me.I admire the valuable information you offer in your articles. Thanks for posting it.

    flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart hdfc cashback offers You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart SBI Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart AXIS Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart YES Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getFlipkart big billion day offers

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getflipkart bank cashback offersso


    Flipkart cashback offers on mobiles,
    Flipkart cashback offers,
    Flipkart cashback coupons,
    Flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles,
    Flipkart HDFC cashback offers,
    Flipkart SBI cashback offers,
    Flipkart AXIS cashback offers,
    Flipkart Citibank cashback offers,
    Flipkart cashback on mobiles,
    Flipkart cashback offers today,
    Flipkart big billion day cashback offers,
    Flipkart big billion days cashback offers,
    big billion day cashback offers,
    Flipkart big billion days offers,
    flipkart cashback on mobiles,
    flipkart citibank offer,
    sbi credit card offers on flipkart today,
    flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles,
    hdfc credit card offers on flipkart,
    flipkart upcoming big billion day,
    flipkart upcoming sale,
    sbi credit card offers on mobiles,
    flipkart offers today,
    flipkart offers on mobiles,
    flipkart offers today mobile phones,
    flipkart cashback offers,
    flipkart cashback coupons,
    flipkart sale today offer,
    flipkart cashback offers today,
    cashback offers,
    flipkart cashback offer today

    ReplyDelete


  8. flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart hdfc cashback offers You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart SBI Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart AXIS Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart YES Cashback Offer You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getFlipkart big billion day offers

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getflipkart bank cashback offersso



    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getFlipkart big billion day offer


    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getflipkart bank cashback offersso

    Flipkart is one of the biggest world wide eCommerce Site so here you will getFlipkart bank offersso

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart Today Offers You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart offers today You will get upto 75% Discount

    Flipkart is Offering Cashback Offers Flipkart Today saree offers You will get upto 75% Discount

    ReplyDelete

  9. Offersable - Cash Back Offers | Discount Coupons | Bank Offers | Promo Codes.
    Find best Discount Coupons, Cashback Offers, Hot Deals Bank Offers for
    all major e-commerce stores in the India



    Amazon cashback offers 2018Cashback Deals with sbi,hdfc,icici,axis banks,
    credit&debit card,
    Amazon Cashback Offers 2018 Upto 65% Cashback Deals, AMAZON CASHBACK OFFERS 2018,
    DISCOUNT COUPON OFFERS 2018, Amazon cashback offers with sbi hdfc icici axis banks credit&debit card offers more. amazon cashback offers2018,amazon india cashback,amazon offers on mobiles,
    amazon cashback2018,amazon offers 2018



    flipkart sbi offers, Flipkart Sbi Offer, SBI offers on Flipkart, Sbi offers in Flipkart, Sbi offer flipkart, Sbi discounts flipkart, FLipkart sbi discounts

    MyDealsAndCoupons,flipkart cashback offers,cashbackcoupons,flipkartcashbackoffers,cashbackoffer,cashbackofferscoupons,flipkarthdfcoffer,latestcashbackoffers,flipkartcreditcardoffers,dealsncashbackcashbackoffers

    cashbackcoupons

    Amazon cashback offers today, Amazon cashback offers, Amazon cashback offers on mobiles,
    amazon cashback offers today,amazon cashback offers,amazon cashback offer august,amazon citibank cash back offer,amazon cashback offer on hdfc credit card,amazon cashback offer on hdfc credit card,amazon cashback offer jio,amazon cashback offers on mobiles,amazon pay cashback offer today,amazon offers 10 cashback




    Flipkart HDFC Offer 2018 | Flipkart Offers Today | Flipkart Bank Offer

    Flipkart CashBack Offers - SBI, HDFC, ICICI, Citibank Cards,flipkart sbi debit card emi,flipkart upcoming offers on mobiles,flipkart credit card,flipkart cashback phonepe,flipkart credit card generator,flipkart cashback offer phonepe,flipkart american express,india fake debit card generator,flipkart american express gift card,sbi credit card offers on flipkart today,sbi flipkart offer,
    sbi debit card offers cash back,sbi flipkart offer 2018,,telugu bloggers ,telugu websites

    ReplyDelete

Popular Posts