Summer Weather Outlook

After a nice warm and dry start to the normally wet and cool month of May, we are back to a cool and showery weather pattern for the Memorial Day Weekend in the Rockies.

At least through Sunday, rain or snow showers are to be expected each day here in Jackson Hole, with highs only getting into the 50’s the rest of this week. That’s kind of hard to take after already experiencing several days earlier in May that were up into the 70’s, and one day tagging 80 degrees!

By Monday, Memorial Day, we should be back to sunnier skies and temps warming back up above 60 degrees, and maybe edging back up around 70 by mid-week.

What lies ahead for this Summer?

What I hear on the street is that we are in for a “hot and dry” summer.  A look at the Farmer’s Almanac backs that prognostication up, as well. But I usually defer to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), to see how the next few months are expected to shake out, at least in general.

The CPC is a branch of the National Weather Service or NOAA whose sole task is to analyze the weather out beyond the standard 3 to 7-day forecast, as it relates to temperatures and precipitation being above or below “normal”, over the long term.

These are the maps you see below, for June-July-August. The 3-Month Temperature Outlook for the Southwestern U.S., especially, is solidly in the “above” normal category. Most of the rest of the southern tier of the U.S. is expected to be warmer than normal, as is the northern Rockies, including Idaho & Wyoming.

3 Month Temperature Outlook

3 Month Precipitation Outlook

However, the only area of the country that has a high probability of seeing “below” normal precipitation is northern Idaho and western Montana. Southern Idaho and Northwestern Wyoming fall under a lesser probability category, and everywhere else in the country (with the exception of southern Florida), has an “Equal Chance” (EC) of being either above or below normal, or just normal.

For a little more insight into how the CPC determines all of this, go to this link:

CPC Summary of the Long Range Outlook for Summer

You will see just how much data and how many different climate indicators these guys consider when putting these simple maps together. More than meets the eye!

One of the factors the CPC considers is the current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) or El Nino/La Nina situation in the equatorial Pacific, which is currently in a Neutral phase, by the way.

To follow the long range outlooks throughout the year and to hunt down more info about La Nina and El Nino you can go through the NWS Discussions & Outlooks page on mountainweather.com, direct link is here:

NWS DISCUSSIONS & OUTLOOKS

What’s My Take?

In the short term, the early part of June looks slightly cooler and more showery for Jackson Hole, beyond that, we’ll really have to wait and see as the summer goes on.

I do expect since the snow at low elevations has been gone awhile now, that the ground will heat up more readily and warmer than normal temps this summer would be likely.  But it only takes one or two good thunderstorms a month to bring us our normal, or even above normal, precipitation amounts. The problem with that is, that more thunderstorms could potentially lead to more forest fires.

 Text submitted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

Graphics from NWS

Avalanche & Weather Forecasting for Military Meteorologists

For the past two weeks, during part of my “Spring Break”, I was involved with teaching avalanche and weather forecasting courses to military meteorologists here in Jackson Hole. I spent last week with the US Air Force’s 10^th Combat Weather Squadron, based out of Hurlburt Field in Florida. The week before, I was with the US Navy's Special Warfare Support Activity Group-2 out of Little Creek in Virginia Beach, VA.

Prior to these courses, I had the opportunity this past Fall to work with both of these groups teaching a Mountain Weather Forecasting Course at their respective bases, and these avalanche courses became a natural progression towards improving their winter weather forecasting skills.

The two courses conducted here in Jackson this April were a cooperative effort between the American Avalanche Institute and MountainWeather™, and I was assisted by one of AAI's lead avalanche instructors, John Fitzgerald. 

A lot of work went into coordinating and conducting these specialized courses, but in the end, John and I both came away with a healthy respect for the jobs that both of these groups do and were honored to have these teams here working with us.

Below is a recap of these courses, some photos, and little bit about the work these dedicate groups do for our country.

USAF 10^th Combat Weather Squadron 

The 10^th CWS is part of the Special Operations Weather Team (SOWT), and they are among some of the most highly trained personnel in the US Miitary. It’s hard for me to imagine "fighting weathermen", but that is exactly what they are. Capable of forecasting the weather, installing weather stations in remote (and often hostile) locations, sometimes parachuting into those locations, and if necessary, shooting their way out.  That’s a pretty “bad-ass” bunch of meteorologists!

John and I did manage to stay just ahead of this fit group on our ascents of various mountains during the field portions of the avalanche class, and we felt that the mountain-travel training they received was almost as valuable as the snow and avalanche knowledge we imparted. Perhaps on their next deployment into Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush mountains they will remember how pleasant (and free of gunfire!) the mountains around Jackson Hole were.

One of the things that impressed us the most about the boys from the 10th, besides their dedication to the tasks we gave them during the course and their ability to add one more complex skill to their already impressive set, was their patriotism. Everywhere we went, no matter what the weather, no matter how long the climb, the universal sign of Freedom was unfurled, the American flag.  (Note: They even brought an eagle head mask for the photo! See man in the center of pic with wings spread.)

Old Glory on top of Mt. Glory

The guys from the 10^th also shared with us some photos that were taken near Salang Pass in the Hindu Kush, a known avalanche prone area that is a major thorofare through those mountains for both local and military transport. Salang is like a really large scale Teton Pass! 

Salang Pass was the site of devastating avalanche cycle back in February 2010 that trapped over 2,000 travellers and killed 172 people. During that same storm in 2010 there was a second avalanche accident at the Indian Army's High Altitude Warfare School near the Gulmarg Ski Resort in NW India's Kashmir , involving over 50 troops and killing 17 men during a training session. 

Theses incidents highlight the need for members of the 10th CWS to have good avalanche-weather forecasting skills. Which could have the potential to save untold lives in the future.

The most striking photo I saw from Salang was of the group erecting a weather station at Salang Pass last Fall…..it reminded me of the that famous photo of the Marines planting the flag at Iwo Jima!

Photo courtesy of USAF

US Navy Special Warfare Support Activity Group-2

NSWSA-2 personnel provide support and logistics to the Navy’s Seal Team-2 at Little Creek. The part of their group that came to Jackson is responsible for all the weather forecasting for these Naval special operations. This group also gets deployed to forward bases and can find themselves in a position of forecasting winter weather and/or the potential for avalanches in the surrounding mountainous terrain.

The main focus of this course was to provide this group with a better understanding of forecasting weather in mountainous terrain and applying that to changing snowpack conditions and changing avalanche hazard. Our goal was to give these forecasters the knowledge necessary to help warn and keep their troops on the ground out of harms way of avalanches.

For the four forecasters that came to Jackson, this was their first experience digging snowpits and actually analyzing the snow layers and seeing first-hand how the snowpack, terrain, and weather all interact with each other. This extremely sharp group absorbed the complex science of snow very quickly, and I expect they will be able to make sound assessments of the avalanche danger if called upon to do so for an operation.

US Navy Weather Team on Angle Mountain

The weather in Jackson this April also provided this group with a variety of conditions to forecast for, most predominantly warming temps and spring wet slides.

Coincidentally, a springtime avalanche cycle had just occurred the week prior over in the eastern part of the Karakoram Mountains, along the India-Pakistan border. (The Hindu-Kush lies in the western end of the Karakoram). One very large avalanche near the Siachen Glacier buried an entire Pakistani Army Camp, 140 people, and so far no one has been found alive.

This incident, along with two other deadly avalanche cycles this winter during the month of March 2012 that buried several villages in Afghanistan’s mountains, collectively killing another 100 people, only re-enforced the need for our military operations to have the knowledge and skills required to better predict avalanches.

When both of these courses concluded, Fitz and I took great pride and pleasure in knowing that in some small way we may have helped our troops down the road on their next mountain deployment.

Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

Photos by Jim & USAF

April Weather See-Saw

Sunday morning's snow was kind of a cruel April Fools joke, especially after the nice afternoon we had on Saturday, the last day of March! High temperatures on Saturday in Jackson Hole topped out at 63 degrees. The high Sunday afternoon was 43 degrees. Courtesy of a cold front that went through overnight Saturday night. (See this past Sunday's weather map below).

Neither of these high temps broke any records. As a matter of fact, the record high for March 31st in Jackson is 70 degrees. Set back in 2004. And actually that whole first week on April 2004 was warm, setting record highs almost every day, in the upper 60's. Which is as warm as we have ever been in early April.

Average highs in Jackson the first week in April are in the upper 40's to around 50.

By the second week in April we usually see highs in the mid-50's, on average. Record highs in the lower 70's.

What's Ahead
We go back and forth this week, with temps warming mid-week, then another cold front moving through at the end of the week, bringing some more snow Thursday/Friday. (See forecast map below for Friday).

Temps staying cool through the Easter Weekend, before we warm back up to more Spring-like temps just after Easter weekend. Not unusual to see the weather flip-flopping back and forth from spring to winter during April. You just have to have skis, boats, and bikes ready to go .......depending on the weather each day.

Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey
Graphics courtesy of IPS MeteoStar

New mountainweather.com MOBILE site

Tuesday, March 20^th……..Welcome to the First Day of Spring 2012!

Today is also the day that MountainWeather.com launches the mobile version of the website.

Created and developed for MountainWeather by Gliffen Designs of Jackson Hole, the same great web folks who designed the new version of the main MountainWeather.com site a little over a year ago.

When you open www.mountainweather.com in your phone’s web browser it should automatically default to the mobile version. If not, just type in: www.mountainweather.com/mobile

Or, scan the QR code below with you phone!

Why a Mobile Version?

The main reason is, that weather happens outside, and now you will have access to MountainWeather everywhere, and on the go!

Whether you are outdoors recreating or on the road travelling, now you can stay updated with current weather conditions, the Jackson Hole forecast, weather maps, road reports, webcams, and more.

Second reason is, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of times people were accessing the main MountainWeather site with mobile devices over the past 6 months, and since almost half of the mobile phone users in the US have smartphones, it seemed like the time was right.

Now you can access MountainWeather, wherever!

Is it an App?

This mobile version of mountainweather.com is basically a website formatted to fit the screens of most smartphones. It contains a condensed version of the more popular weather products and information available on the main website.

This is not an “app”, but it will look like and feel like an “app” on your smartphone.

The beauty of a “mobile” version of a website is, it will work across all smartphone platforms and operating systems, and will be iPhone, Android, and Blackberry friendly.

The other advantage of a mobile version vs. an app is that a mobile version can constantly be updated and information added, whereas an app would have to wait for a newer version to be developed.

How to Keep MountainWeather Mobile on Your Phone

To add an icon to your smartphone’s screen, follow the instructions below.

For an iPhone:

1) Tap the options button at the bottom of the screen box with an arrow coming out of it), then choose “Add to Home Screen”.

2) Name it something short, such as “MW Mobile”, then tap “add”.

3) You now have a MountainWeather Mobile icon on your phone.

4) Tap that icon like you would any other icon for the many apps you have.

For an Android:

1. Type in www.mountainweather.com in your phone’s web browser.
2. Go to the home screen you would like to add the mobile site to
3. Long-press in the empty area you'd like to add the icon to, this will bring up the "Add to Home Screen" menu
4. Select Shortcuts and then Bookmarks
5. Choose the MountainWeather.com Mobile bookmark

Additional Functionality and Tips

The other bonus of adding icons to your phone in this manner from your browser is, you are able to make as many icons as you like for your most frequently visited pages on the site. For instance, if looking at Satellite photos is your thing, then go to the Satellite & Radar page and save that specific page to your home screen.

The idea with the mobile site is to be able to view most products without having to pinch and expand any more than is necessary to view the information. Some weather content is not really formatted for smartphones, but is included on the mobile site anyway, so you can still have access to these products. They will require some manipulation after opening that page.

You always have the option to view all the weather products available on the main site, which you can do anytime by going to “VIEW FULL SITE” at the bottom of each page. Particularly if there is a weather product you like that is not listed on the mobile site.

Satellite loops for instance can be viewed by tapping the satellite photo of your choice, then the loop will open in a separate window or page. On that page, just expand or pinch to zoom in or out to the desired viewing size. These loops also have full controls, to go slower or faster, step through one-at-a-time, etc.

Road Reports for each of the States listed vary widely in their presentation. Utah is the least friendly to look at on your phone. I’ll be on the lookout for improvements with those, as time goes on.

More to Come

This mobile version of mountainweather.com will have more info will be added through this Spring and Summer, with more webcams, weather stations, etc. coming soon. So, keep checking back to see what’s new.

And remember, even though this site is free to use, no app fee, no monthly charges, no cost to you…..please tap on the advertising sponsors banners to see what they are all about, and support those who support MountainWeather. They are what keeps this engine running!

Enjoy “tapping” around!

Some Other Screen shots

Posted by Jim Woodmencey, meteorologist

Good Dump Producer

Wednesday, Feb. 29th, 2012...............A nice combination of features on the weather maps today, all lining up to become a good dump-producer for Jackson Hole & the Tetons today. And then Swinging south over Utah and Colorado tonight & Thursday.

Low pressure center at the surface over the Northwestern US today, this will be moving across the Rockies in two pieces, with one piece passing by to the North of Jackson Hole, in Montana ( a really good position for Northwest Wyoming's mountains). The second piece of that Low pressure center will be dropping south over the Utah/Colorado border area.

There is also a cold front that will be plowing through this afternoon, adding some extra boost to the weather system, and intensifying the snowfall over the Tetons and eventually over parts of Utah & Colorado's mountains.

All of that stuff east moves into the Plains on Friday.

Surface Map below left, Jet Stream Map below right..........




Upper Level Trof of Low pressure is also in a good position, with a nose of the jet stream also moving overhead today, along with a good diverging West to SW flow out ahead of the Trof. To top it off with a little extra sauce, there is also a strong Northwest flow on the backside of this Trof, which is providing an ample supply of cold air aloft (along with Pacific moisture) to keep things unstable.

That's the technical jibberish.... But it all translates into a big dump to skiers.

You can check out the newest 3-Day Surface Maps and Jet Stream Forecast Maps on the USA Forecasts Page on www.mountainweather.com

I just added a new look and content to that page today. Check it all out. And while you are there, have a look at the Satellite & Radar page too, pretty good looking right now!


Graphics from NWS & UCAR.
Posted by meteorologist Jim Woodmencey

Snowfall Playing Catch-up and Gaining!

We have had a lot to make up for with snowfall this winter, with a slow start to the season. Snow storms have been fewer and farther between than last winter, but this past week's snowfall has almost caught us up to where we should be this time of year.

It has generally been a feast or famine cycle for powder this season, with three good stormy periods that stick out: one around New Year's, one the third week of January, and now this one during the second to third weeks in February.

We are just past the mid-point of the Winter Season now, and maybe we can relax a little as settled snow depths are now very close to normal for this time of year in the mountains, thanks to the snow of this past week. As as you can see in the table below, we're not grossly behind where we were last year at this time, for settled snow depths.

Settled Snow Depth Comparison (Inches) on February 23rd Jackson Hole Mountain Resort
Weather Station	This year Feb. 23, 2012	Average Feb. 23rd	Last Year Feb. 23, 2011
Rendezvous Bowl (9,580-ft.)	89	90	108
Raymer Plot (9,360-ft.)	92	83	101
Mid-Mountain (8.180-ft.)	78	82	90
Base (6,510-ft.)	34	35	36
Data from Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center

February 14 to 22 Snow & Wind
Between Valentine's Day and Washington's Birthday there has been about 4 feet of new snow at the higher elevations. Rendezvous Bowl had 44 inches and the Raymer Plot had 48 inches.

Distribution was a little askew when comparing these two stations at roughly the same elevation, during the first half of this past week (Feb. 14 to 20) Rendezvous Bowl had 20 inches of snow and the Raymer Plot reported 15 inches.

During the second half of this past week (Feb 21 to 23) Rendezvous Bowl showed a total of 22 inches of new snow and the Raymer Plot recorded 33 inches of snow. Not to shabby for February, which is usually the driest month of the winter, on average.

It was also VERY windy during this period, with 30 to 39 mph sustained winds in the valley and gust to 55 mph. In the mountains averages were sometimes between 40 and 50 mph with gusts near 80 mph in the Teton Range. The jet stream was right over head Wednesday evening when winds were at their peak, and estimated to be between 130 and 150 mph at 30,000-ft.

Total Season Snowfall
We are still behind on our season total snowfall numbers and nowhere near where we were last winter. See comparison table below.

Total Season SnowfallComparison (Inches) as of February 23rd Jackson Hole Mountain Resort
Weather Station	This year Feb. 23, 2012	Average on Feb. 23rd	Last Year Feb. 23, 2011
Rendezvous Bowl (9,580-ft.)	252	302	359
Raymer Plot (9,360-ft.)	264	350	390
Mid-Mountain (8.180-ft.)	231	276	323
Base (6,510-ft.)	96	131	138
Data from Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center

Snotel Reports also indicate that the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is now at 92% of average. So it is looking like the middle part of winter is proving to be the fattest, as far as snowfall goes.

The best news for Jackson Hole skier's is, that we are still looking fatter than much of the rest of the Western United States. (See National and regional snowdepth maps below, as of Feb. 23, 2012.

Snow Analysis maps can be viewed on the Skier's Page on www.mountainweather.com




Posted by Meteorologist Jim Woodmencey
February 23, 2012

Northwesterly Flow or a "Dirty Ridge"

Surprisingly, we have managed to pick up roughly 20 inches of new snow in the Teton Mountains since Valentine's Day (Totals for Feb. 13 thru 19) with weak Low pressure systems wandering around the Western U.S.

While we have spent the better part of the last 3 weeks without a significant jet stream flow over the Western U.S. it finally looks like that will be changing here this week as we come under a stronger Northwesterly flow beginning tonight and Tuesday (Feb. 21st)

That jet stream will be positioned just to the north of Jackson Hole, so we will start out initially with warmer air Tues. into Wed. Then, that jet drops further south Wed. night & Thurs. bringing colder air with it.

Jet Stream Map for Wednesday Feb. 22nd

A Ridge of High pressure will be positioned off the West Coast and moisture associated with Low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska and further out in the Pacific will be directed up and over the top of that Ridge and straight over us in a consistent NW flow aloft.

This is not a “storm” per say, but rather a very moist and consistent Northwesterly flow, which is usually a very favorable flow to have for producing decent snowfall in the Tetons. You might also call this a “Dirty Ridge” situation, where moisture rides over the top (northern part) of a Ridge of High pressure that is usually located along or just off the West Coast. Snowfall will follow the trail of moisture, and generally will be in the vicinity of the jet stream flow, as well.

Maps below of Forecasted Snowfall for Western U.S.
And zoomed-in map of Idaho-Montana-Wyoming
for Monday Feb. 20 thru Wednesday Feb. 22

Looks like the best snowfall for us will come Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday afternoon, with very strong winds developing, especially in the mountains. This model above shows something in excess of 25 inches of snow at the higher elevations in the Tetons thru Wednesday evening. More conservatively, I think you can count on snow accumulations in the mountains of between 1 and 2 feet.

Snow tapers off for Thursday, then we see a Low pressure system drop south out of B.C. at the end of the week, which will bring more snow to NW Wyoming Friday and over the weekend.